Jobs Beat Lifts Nasdaq Futures After Rout; ES Short Holds 128 Points Above Target

Nasdaq 100 futures bounced after Thursday's AI-led selloff and a much stronger October jobs report, while Dow futures stayed lower. At 8:40 a.m. ET, ES traded at 7,393.25, below the playbook's short participation range and 128 points above the 7,265.25 target. All three index gamma maps (SPX, NDX, RUT) read negative gamma, where dealer hedging tends to amplify moves.

Market context

Payrolls rose 165,000 in October versus about 65,000 expected, and unemployment slipped to 4.1%. That followed Thursday's drop of 5.52% in the Nasdaq and 4.36% in the S&P 500. Early quotes had Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Dow futures down 0.9%. The 10-year yield was near 4.837%, with gold near $4,070, WTI near $90.89 and bitcoin near $76,016 (early quotes).

Overnight: What was trending and went to stated profit targets

• Playbook #2: AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY shorts reached target (0.69096, 0.55798, 157.303), as did 6A, 6N and 6C shorts (0.69045, 0.55875, 0.71450) and 6J and USD/CAD longs (0.0063755, 1.40199).
• Playbook #3: the ZO short reached its 329.50 target. Two setups (GBP/USD and 6B longs) hit their stops.

Playbook record, last 10 trading days (day, overnight + Live Room): of 777 setups that triggered, 186 reached target, 21 hit their stops and 570 hit neither.

Three models, one story

Fut	Premarket ref	Playbook	Price vs playbook	Price vs SR pivots	0DTE gamma	Trend odds
ES	7,393.25	Short	already beyond range, toward target; 128.00 pts to 7,265.25	between S1 and R1	Negative (-$15.60B)	40%
NQ	27,100.25	Short	already beyond range, toward target; 977.25 pts to 26,123.00	between S1 and R1	Negative (-$303.25M)	55%
RTY	2,741.6	Short	already beyond range, toward target; 54.7 pts to 2,686.9	between S1 and R1	Negative (-$540.85M)	55%

All three index shorts line up: each is beyond its range, between S1 and R1 and in negative gamma. Each target sits near support: ES 7,265.25 by S1 at 7,270.75, NQ 26,123.00 at the put wall near /NQ 26,122 and RTY 2,686.9 at the put wall near /RTY 2,686.

Playbook spotlight

Contract	Bias	Participation range	Reversal pt	Initial target	S1 / R1 pivot	Price check
ES – Emini S&P	Short	7,656.50 – 7,547.00	7,676.00	7,265.25	7,270.75 / 7,470.75	7,393.25 at 8:40 ET

• ES: Price sits between the SPX put wall (about /ES 7,329) and call wall (about /ES 7,429), below the flip near /ES 7,559. A break of the put wall points to S1 at 7,270.75 and the 7,265.25 target; R1 at 7,470.75 is resistance.

Support / resistance roadmap

Contract	S3 lower target	S2 breakdown	S1 support	R1 resistance	R2 breakout	R3 upper target
ES	7,006.25	7,170.75	7,270.75	7,470.75	7,570.75	7,735.25
NQ	24,963.25	25,731.50	26,197.50	27,129.00	27,595.00	28,363.25
RTY	2,584.3	2,651.1	2,691.7	2,772.9	2,813.5	2,880.3
YM	48,973	50,095	50,778	52,144	52,827	53,949
CL	88.86	89.83	90.40	91.52	92.09	93.06
GC	4,038.1	4,065.2	4,081.6	4,114.4	4,130.8	4,157.9

What to watch

• Jobs follow-through: whether the Nasdaq bounce holds into the cash open after the 165,000 payrolls print.
• First 30 minutes: ES between the put wall near /ES 7,329 and call wall near /ES 7,429; in negative gamma a break of either can extend.
• Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan preliminary November sentiment, expected 47.3 versus 48.0 prior.

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