Results: Ichor Holdings, Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

There's been a major selloff in Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (NASDAQ:ICHR) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 28% to US$28.03. Revenues were US$329m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.55, an impressive 93% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ichor Holdings from eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.65b in 2027. If met, it would imply a major 50% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 2,738% to US$2.65. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.59 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Ichor Holdings

The consensus price target fell 9.1% to US$83.25, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Ichor Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$98.00 and the most bearish at US$55.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Ichor Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 38% growth to the end of 2027 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.6% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 26% annually. So it looks like Ichor Holdings is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Ichor Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Ichor Holdings' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ichor Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Ichor Holdings that you should be aware of.

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