Results: Marqeta, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Marqeta, Inc. (NASDAQ:MQ) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$176m were what the analysts expected, Marqeta surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.09 per share, an impressive 1,566% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Marqeta's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$799.7m in 2027. This would reflect a decent 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 60% to US$0.50 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$807.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.48 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Marqeta

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$20.65, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Marqeta analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Marqeta shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Marqeta's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Marqeta's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 13% growth to the end of 2027 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.1% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.3% per year. So it looks like Marqeta is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Marqeta's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$20.65, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Marqeta analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Marqeta that you need to take into consideration.

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