Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

As you might know, Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Results were overall in line with expectations, with the company breaking even at the statutory earnings per share (EPS) level on US$128m in revenue. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Ardelyx's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$610.2m in 2027. This would be a substantial 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Ardelyx forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.24 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$624.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

See our latest analysis for Ardelyx

There's been no real change to the average price target of US$12.80, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ardelyx analyst has a price target of US$18.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Ardelyx's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 24% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 53% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 547 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Ardelyx is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ardelyx following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at US$12.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Ardelyx going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ardelyx you should be aware of.

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