i-80 Gold Corp. (TSE:IAU) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

i-80 Gold Corp. (TSE:IAU) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.8% to CA$1.91 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues fell badly short of expectations, with revenue of US$33m, missing analyst estimates by 34%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on i-80 Gold after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from i-80 Gold's four analysts is for revenues of US$251.5m in 2027. This would reflect a sizeable 92% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 64% to US$0.11. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$279.8m and losses of US$0.041 per share in 2027. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

Check out our latest analysis for i-80 Gold

There was no major change to the consensus price target of CA$4.64, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on i-80 Gold, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$5.55 and the most bearish at CA$4.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that i-80 Gold's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 69% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 45% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 14% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that i-80 Gold is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at i-80 Gold. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple i-80 Gold analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether i-80 Gold is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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