Fortum Oyj (HLSE:FORTUM) Reports Mixed Results, Is The Upside Already Priced In?

Fortum Oyj (HLSE:FORTUM) has put fresh numbers on the table, with third quarter 2026 earnings showing higher sales alongside lower quarterly profit, while nine month figures point to increased revenue and net income compared with a year earlier.

At a share price of €23.28, Fortum Oyj has seen a 20.15% 90 day share price return and a 25.84% year to date share price gain. The 3 year total shareholder return of 137.56% suggests that longer term holders have experienced a very strong payoff as the market has reassessed both growth potential and risk around the business.

Spot Fortum Oyj in context by scanning other utilities with recent earnings momentum and mixed profit trends across our hand picked 214 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

After a sharp rerating on mixed earnings, the Fortum Oyj share price now forces a simple question. Has most of the easy upside already played out, or do the current fundamentals still support further value?

Most Popular Narrative: 0% Overvalued

On the most followed narrative, Fortum Oyj screens as fairly priced, with a fair value of €23.21 sitting almost exactly in line with the last close at €23.28. As a result, the debate shifts from upside potential to how durable the underlying earnings drivers really are.

The company is building an approximately 8 gigawatt pipeline of onshore wind and solar projects backed by customer PPAs and is actively negotiating long tenor contracts with data centers and other industrial customers. If decarbonization and electrification trends translate into robust PPA demand at attractive price levels, this could drive structurally higher revenue and more visible cash flows.

See why 13 investors see Fortum Oyj as 0% overvalued.

Result: Fair Value of €23.21 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Still, a tougher tax and regulatory backdrop, together with hydro and nuclear availability risk, could interrupt the Fortum Oyj story analysts are currently banking on.

Find out about the key risks to this Fortum Oyj narrative.

Another View on Fortum Oyj’s Value

The first narrative says Fortum Oyj looks fairly priced around €23. Yet the SWS DCF model suggests something very different, with the shares trading about 52% below an estimated future cash flow value of €48.18. Which story do you trust more: earnings multiples, or long term cash flows?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Fortum Oyj for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 224 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on Fortum Oyj so far. If you want to move quickly and build your own view from the ground up, start by weighing the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Fortum Oyj?

If Fortum Oyj has sharpened your focus on quality, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now and give yourself better choices tomorrow.

• Target resilient opportunities with stronger fundamentals by scanning our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (193 results) that highlight companies prioritising balance sheet strength.
• Hunt for potential mispricings by reviewing the 224 high quality undervalued stocks to spot businesses where quality and valuation line up more tightly.
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