Earnings Miss: Meliá Hotels International, S.A. Missed EPS By 7.3% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Meliá Hotels International, S.A. (BME:MEL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.6% to €10.71. Meliá Hotels International beat revenue expectations by 2.1%, at €660m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €0.34, some 7.3% short of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Meliá Hotels International's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of €2.26b in 2027. This would be a satisfactory 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 2.7% to €0.80. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €2.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.80 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Meliá Hotels International

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €11.44, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Meliá Hotels International at €14.30 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €9.60. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Meliá Hotels International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 2.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Meliá Hotels International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Meliá Hotels International going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Meliá Hotels International that you need to be mindful of.

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