U.S. Physical Therapy (USPH) Beat Third Quarter Estimates, Is It Fully Valued Now?

U.S. Physical Therapy (USPH) is back in focus after reporting third quarter 2026 results that topped analyst forecasts on revenue and earnings per share, paired with another confirmed quarterly dividend.

Recent trading reflects that upbeat tone. The share price has climbed 21.42% over the past 90 days and 23.23% year to date, and when you factor in dividends, the 1 year total shareholder return of 28.56% points to momentum building around U.S. Physical Therapy’s story.

Scan beyond U.S. Physical Therapy and evaluate other healthcare names showing strong fundamentals with our curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results) for this part of the market.

After a 90-day jump and a fresh earnings beat, U.S. Physical Therapy now trades much closer to analyst targets. Is it worth paying a higher price today, or does waiting for a potentially cheaper entry make more sense as you weigh valuation next?

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

With U.S. Physical Therapy last closing at $97.20 and the most followed fair value estimate at $97, the stock now trades almost exactly in line with that narrative. This puts the spotlight firmly on whether the earnings path used in that model still feels realistic to you.

In order for you to agree with the analysts, you would need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $1.0 billion, earnings will come to $97.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%. Given the current share price of $83.72, the analyst price target of $97.0 is 13.7% higher.

See why 1 investors see U.S. Physical Therapy as 0% overvalued.

Result: Fair Value of $97 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Still, the narrative frays quickly if reimbursement weakens or if rising labor and employee medical costs keep squeezing U.S. Physical Therapy’s margins, even with strong clinic volumes.

Find out about the key risks to this U.S. Physical Therapy narrative.

Another View: Cash Flow Says U.S. Physical Therapy Is Cheap

The fair value story around U.S. Physical Therapy looks very different when you swap analyst targets for the SWS DCF model. On that approach, the shares trade at $97.20 against an estimated future cash flow value of $172.94, which screens as a 43.8% discount. Which version of “fair” feels more convincing to you?

To see how this cash flow view is built and what would need to hold true for it to be reasonable, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out U.S. Physical Therapy for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 42 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals around U.S. Physical Therapy’s value and risk profile make this a stock you need to look at directly rather than rely on headlines. Move quickly, review the underlying metrics, and then weigh your own view against the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond U.S. Physical Therapy?

If U.S. Physical Therapy has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not late to the next opportunity.

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