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    Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Beat Expectations And Lifted Guidance, Is The Stock Still Cheap?

    Simply Wall St·11/06/2026 03:40:55
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    Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) is back in focus after reporting a smaller than expected quarterly loss, along with fiscal 2027 guidance that points to net sales growth and improved profitability.

    The recent earnings beat and 2027 guidance have shifted attention back to the share price, which has a 30-day share price return of 31.39% and a 7-day share price return of 7.29%, even though the 1-day share price return declined 1.21% to $66.38. That short-term surge sits against an 11.69% year-to-date share price return and a 22.81% 1-year total shareholder return. At the same time, the 3-year total shareholder return of 55.26% and 5-year total shareholder return decline of 53.85% show how mixed the longer history has been for Scotts Miracle-Gro and why investors are reacting strongly to fresh guidance and dividend affirmations.

    Scan how investors are reacting to Scotts Miracle-Gro's earnings shift, then size up similar opportunities using our curated list of 42 high quality undervalued stocks.

    After a 31% jump in 30 days, Scotts Miracle-Gro now trades meaningfully below both analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates. Is that discount a genuine margin of safety or a value trap in disguise?

    Most Popular Narrative: 19% Undervalued

    On the most followed view, Scotts Miracle-Gro is worth $82.00 per share, which sits above the recent $66.38 close and frames that 31% monthly rebound as a move toward, not away from, perceived value.

    Continuation of the shift away from roughly US$100 million of low margin mulch and soil and the planned removal of about 30% of lowest performing SKUs creates room for Scotts Miracle-Gro to backfill with newer branded and organic lines that have already generated US$278 million of gross sales from recent launches, which could support a richer mix and higher gross margin over time.

    See why 0 investors see Scotts Miracle-Gro as 19% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $82.00 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, governance investigations around the 2023 results and any tighter financing terms that follow could pressure earnings quality and weigh on the Scotts Miracle-Gro story.

    Find out about the key risks to this Scotts Miracle-Gro narrative.

    Next Steps

    Mixed messages on Scotts Miracle-Gro so far, or a clear signal hiding in plain sight? Act while sentiment is still shifting and review the full breakdown of 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Scotts Miracle-Gro?

    If you stop with Scotts Miracle-Gro, you miss a broader lineup of potential opportunities that might fit your risk profile, time horizon, and income goals.