MDA Space Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

MDA Space (TSX:MDA) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

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View the webcast at https://app.webinar.net/87Y9EovzjGL

Summary

MDA Space reported strong Q3 2026 results with revenue of $498 million, a 22% increase year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $96 million.

The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.9-$1.95 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $355-$375 million.

Strategic growth initiatives include acquisitions of Blue Canyon Technologies and CLS, which are expected to significantly expand revenue and global reach.

Notable achievements include the successful launch of initial replenishment satellites for Globalstar and the upcoming launch of the MDA Chorus Earth observation constellation.

The company is investing in innovation, exemplified by the introduction of MDA Aurora Black, enhancing its communication technologies for government and military use.

MDA Space maintains a strong backlog of nearly $4 billion and sees a $40 billion opportunity pipeline, with significant new contracts and partnerships in development.

The company’s financial position is strong, with a net cash position of $1.3 billion and total liquidity of $2.9 billion, earmarked for acquisitions and further growth.

Management highlighted the importance of execution and scaling operations to meet growing demand and maintain a competitive advantage in the global space market.

Full Transcript

Vanessa (Moderator)

Good morning and welcome to the MDA Space conference call and webcast. This call and webcast are being recorded on November 5, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. For those participating via webcast, please note that the company has included a presentation that will advance with today’s discussion. If anyone experiences audio difficulties during the conference call, please press star zero for operator assistance at any time.

I would now like to turn the call over to Jim Floros, Vice President of Investor Relations at MDA Space.

Jim Floros (Vice President of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Vanessa. Good morning and welcome to the MDA Space third quarter 2026 earnings call. Mike Greenley, our CEO, and Guillaume Lavoie, our CFO, will lead today’s call by sharing some prepared remarks before taking your questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today’s call is accessible via webcast on our Investor Relations website. All of our disclosures, including the press release, MD&A and financial statements, are also available on our Investor Relations website, in addition to SEDAR+ and EDGAR.

I would also like to remind you that today’s call will include estimates and other forward-looking information which may differ from actual results. Please review the cautionary language in today’s presentation and press release, as well as our other public filings regarding various factors, assumptions and risks that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed here today. In addition, we may refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures.

Although we believe these measures provide useful supplemental information about our financial performance, they do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and our approach in calculating these measures may differ from that of other issuers and therefore may not be directly comparable. Please see the company’s most recent quarterly report and other public filings for more information, including reconciliations to the nearest IFRS measures. With that, I will turn it over to Mike.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Thank you, Jim. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our Q3 results and business updates. Q3 was another strong quarter for MDA Space, not just in the numbers, but in what we continue to accomplish and what it says about where the company is headed. I will walk you through both before Guillaume takes you through the financials in detail. To begin, let’s start with the headline numbers for this quarter and then the year to date. Q3 was once again a strong quarter with revenue of $498 million, up 22% year over year, leading to adjusted EBITDA of $96 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%. Just take a moment there, because I had a bit of a moment when I read those numbers myself. When we went public in 2021, five and a half years from now, those numbers were our numbers for the whole year, and now we just did the same amount in the third quarter.

So it caught me as I was reading those numbers today. Just to share, this brings our year to date revenue to $1.46 billion, up 29% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $283 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.4%. This consistent execution reflects a disciplined MDA Space team focused on delivering exceptional financial performance. Our business is performing well, giving us confidence to increase our full year 2026 outlook for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Now let me walk you through some of the elements behind this consistent execution. We continue to make progress on our growth strategy with several highlights in the quarter. However, before I get into some of these individual highlights in more detail, I want to reflect on several significant accomplishments throughout 2026 that we expect will help position MDA Space as one of the top space companies in the world. Earlier this year we announced two pending acquisitions that will expand our global reach, first with U.S.-based Blue Canyon Technologies, followed by European-based CLS, who operates sites in 19 countries.

Both companies are growing, profitable, cash-generating businesses driven by leading technologies and strong operations. Their complementary technologies and footprint provide significant revenue synergies when combined with MDA Space and meaningfully expand our total addressable market. The quarter itself provided a defining moment in MDA Space history with the successful launch of the initial replenishment satellites for Globalstar, making the first commercial communications satellites delivered by MDA Space to low Earth orbit as a prime contractor. As a follow up, we are approaching another historical event with the launch of MDA Chorus, our next generation Earth observation constellation that will build upon the iconic heritage of the RADARSAT programs with innovative new technologies and operations concepts.

In the meantime, we are not standing still on the product innovation side. The capabilities we unveiled this year enhance our position in fast-growing markets where demand is accelerating and our technology is genuinely differentiated. MDA Aurora Black and MDA Midnight are examples of how we continue to evolve and build proprietary technology responding to real and urgent customer needs. And to further complement this innovation, we recently announced Launchpad Ventures, a new strategic program focused on identifying and investing in the next generation of Canadian space and defence companies, broadening our access within the Canadian technology ecosystem.

Underpinning all of this is the manufacturing capacity and production readiness that we have been building. Our expanded Montreal facility, one of the largest high-volume production facilities in its class, and our MDA Aurora space-grade ASIC chips, designed and now being shipped, provide us the ability to scale and meet the demand ahead. In addition, we continue to work very closely with the Canadian Space Agency to finalize the scope for Canadarm3 as we repurpose this technology for the lunar surface, with these efforts further supported through collaboration between NASA and the Canadian Space Agency.

Since our last earnings call, we have signed a Funded Task Authorization with the CSA to conduct detailed planning for the Robotic Solutions Interface and Mission Operations technologies that are being contemplated for the multi-phase Moon Base. This funding also includes planning activities to identify impacts associated with adapting the large Gateway robotic arm to support LEO missions. We expect to be able to share more details around how Canadarm3 will continue to support NASA’s Artemis mission in the near future.

Lastly, we have seen order momentum building throughout the year with awards as a prime contractor for significant digital payload work as well as for subsystems supporting growth beyond this year. In fact, just last week we were excited to announce our most recent award, an Authorization to Proceed contract with Thales Alenia Space to begin work on MDA Aurora broadband digital phased array antennas and the digital controller for the 66 Layer 1 IRIS Squared satellites, an entry point into this European sovereign constellation.

The points I want to emphasize here is that MDA Space is executing at a high level, we are expanding our capabilities to capitalize on market demands, we are gaining market traction, and the opportunities ahead are compelling. Now let me give you a closer look at a few of the key achievements. We achieved a significant milestone this quarter and the image you see on the slide, for those looking at the webcast, captures this moment. This image shows one of the eight replacement satellites being deployed into orbit this past August as part of Globalstar’s low Earth orbit communications constellation.

The deployment was a success, as all satellites reached their intended orbital planes, with Globalstar confirming, and their team established communications with each satellite, and initial health assessment shortly after launch indicated the satellites were performing as expected. As I mentioned earlier, this was the first time MDA Space delivered a commercial LEO communications constellation as a prime contractor, and it marked a key milestone in the history of this company.

As prime, we own the program from design all the way through assembly, integration, test, and delivery. That is a definitive validation of what MDA Space is capable of and what we are offering to the market. What makes this milestone particularly meaningful is not just that we delivered, but how we delivered it. This program saw a major transformation in how we design and produce satellites, enabling us to accelerate development and manufacturing. With our new high-volume manufacturing facility now in operation in Montreal, we are ramping up even further, giving us the capacity to meet growing market demand. We have proven that we can do this, and we can do it repeatedly.

The remaining nine more satellites are progressing well and expected to be delivered later this year. Once fully operational on orbit, these satellites will enable Globalstar to extend the life of its existing constellation, which supports direct-to-device satellite-enabled services on select mobile phones and Internet of Things applications. Another defining moment for this company, and one that the team is eagerly anticipating, comes with the expected launch of MDA Chorus. We have invested significant capital and resources preparing for this moment. This will be the culmination of a multi-year program that, once fully commissioned, will significantly expand the revenue potential of our Geo Intelligence segment. This is more than just a product launch.

MDA Chorus is a complete multi-sensor Earth observation system that brings together satellites, ground infrastructure, and a full suite of intelligence products in harmony to give customers complete end-to-end control of the Earth observation workflow. The result is a three-satellite constellation anchored by RADARSAT-2 that delivers significant global access coverage. The new C-band satellite images a 700 kilometer wide swath in a single pass, a width roughly equivalent to 6,400 football fields.

Placed end to end, the new X-band satellite then narrows that view to sub-meter resolution, equivalent to less than the size of a pizza box. Together they combine broad coverage capability with high resolution precision, providing day-or-night imaging in all weather conditions. Once the MDA Chorus constellation is live, customers will be supported from our Mission Control Center in Quebec, which is already operational and ready to manage the full system. The complete product offering starts with MDA Chorus Command as the operational entry point for the ecosystem, providing a direct line to the constellation that lets customers plan and task with precision. The next level, MDA Chorus Command Pro, adds direct regional ground station access for maximum control in the system and faster data downlink with near real-time local processing.

Finally, MDA Chorus Intelligence delivers satellite imagery and intelligence reports spanning raw data to fully processed insights, built to fit the customer’s mission. The market signal ahead of this launch is strong, as we have already announced early customer contracts and letters of interest, providing a strong commercial foundation before the constellation is operational, and we expect the CLS acquisition will provide a meaningful accelerant as it brings an established global sales and distribution network with deep customer relationships in multiple countries.

One final note worth touching on: when Chorus lifts off, it will be 19 years after RADARSAT-2 launched in December 2007. That heritage is what Chorus is built on, and RADARSAT-2 will not sit idle. It will anchor the constellation from day one, complementing the capability of the two new satellites joining it on orbit. Speaking of CLS, let me briefly update you on the status of the two strategic acquisitions we announced earlier this year and provide a reminder of the strength of the combination of these businesses with MDA Space. We have various work streams ongoing, and our integration team is working diligently to close both acquisitions, and I am pleased to report that both continue to progress to the closing timelines that we originally anticipated.

While we are still working on achieving all necessary regulatory approvals and other closing conditions, we currently expect the BCT acquisition will close later this year and the CLS acquisition will be completed in late 2026 or early Q1 of next year. BCT will give MDA Space greater participation in the global space economy through a complementary technology set as well as a strategic footprint to serve the substantial U.S. defense market. Combined, we expect to unlock meaningful synergies across our portfolio by leveraging MDA’s technology and experience to build BCT into a prime contractor while maintaining the ability to pursue classified U.S. government programs. CLS, on the other hand, brings a step change to our Earth observation capabilities and, as I mentioned previously, is expected to be a key revenue accelerant for MDA Chorus.

Upon integration of CLS into our Geo Intelligence business segment, we expect to be a vertically integrated global space-based geo-intelligence leader combining upstream satellites and near real-time data services with downstream AI-driven advanced data analytics. On a pro forma basis for 2026, BCT and CLS combined would have contributed almost $700 million in additional revenue. Both companies fit nicely with our 2026 adjusted EBITDA margins expectations of 18% to 20% and are established, profitable, cash-generating businesses.

In addition, CLS is expected to double our recurring revenue as a company to over 30% of our annual revenue. Together these acquisitions will reinforce our position as a global space company, also supporting our growth strategy. We continue to invest in innovation and advancing our technology portfolio. In September we unveiled MDA Aurora Black, an extension of our software-defined MDA Aurora product line, adding purpose-hardened layers of protection and resilience against cyber, physical, and other evolving threats. Aurora Black is designed to deliver secure, resilient, and agile communications for government and military customers, helping countries maintain tactical and strategic communications that are essential to data-centric operations.

With enhanced features such as secure end-to-end connection, customizable protected waveforms, onboard anti-jamming capabilities, resistance to GPS spoofing, and perimeter and proximity sensing, MDA Aurora Black offers elevated mission assurance in contested environments across our direct-to-device and broadband product lines in both LEO and MEO orbits. Underpinning this latest offering is our MDA Aurora product line built on proprietary technologies that provide customers with capabilities not widely available in the market, reinforcing our competitive position. Our IP portfolio safeguards key technological differentiators of the MDA Aurora product line, including the overall architecture, subsystems, digital payloads, as well as both in-orbit and on-ground calibration. Our direct radiating array antennas and digital beamforming technologies are enabled by proprietary chips, with multiple patents securing exclusivity for this chip technology.

Our innovation pipeline remains strong, with new patent filings supporting our next-gen MDA Aurora products. Overall, our Aurora patent portfolio reflects our commitment to innovation protection and is comparable in scale and scope to those of other leading companies in the digital satellite communications sector. MDA Aurora Black responds to growing international demand for sovereign and resilient space-based defense communications infrastructure and positions us well to meet that demand.

Before I hand it over to Guillaume, I want to spend a couple of minutes on what this all means for MDA Space. Because when you take everything I shared today and put it alongside the contracts we have secured and the opportunities in front of us, what emerges is a company with tremendous momentum and a very long runway ahead. Let me walk you through a select handful of awards from this year and opportunities we see ahead because it tells a compelling story.

On the contracted side, this year we have demonstrated the depth and quality of our customer relationships. Our Telesat Lightspeed contract was expanded to support connectivity across the Canadian Arctic. As part of the Enhanced Satellite Communications Project Polar, we confirmed an order for over 1,300 antennas from Airbus. We were contracted by the Canadian Space Agency to manufacture a replenishment satellite that will expand the RADARSAT Constellation Mission from three to four satellites, all of which are repeat orders that speak to the trust these customers place in our capabilities.

Beyond that, long-time customer Mitsubishi Electric contracted us for a next-generation defense communications satellite program, and as I mentioned previously, we received an Authorization to Proceed contract to support Europe’s IRIS Squared constellation, both of which demonstrate how our next-generation digital payload technologies are enabling international opportunities. In addition, we secured a contract to deliver three ground-based optical observatories to support the Surveillance of Space/Space Domain Awareness program for the Department of National Defence, and our 49 North team renewed its long-term contract with the U.S. Air Force for our global procedure designer services. I want to highlight the pattern here. Many of these awards are from customers who come back to MDA Space. This is not a coincidence, but a direct reflection of our execution track record.

Customers come back to MDA Space because of our advanced technologies, our ability to deliver, and the heritage that comes along with that. While these awards make up almost $4 billion of backlog, a number that continues to hold quarter after quarter, the view ahead is equally compelling. Our $40 billion opportunity pipeline underpins our confidence to continue our growth trajectory beyond the next couple of years. This includes $10 billion of down-selected or follow-on opportunities, including the ESCAPE program where the Government of Canada announced that we will serve as the prime contractor responsible for end-to-end mission delivery of the UHF and X-band services, positioning us for what is expected to be a major long-term program.

Beyond this, we see meaningful opportunities around civil and defense Earth observation missions, additional demand for sovereign and commercial satellite communication networks, and opportunities for MDA Skymicare and MDA Midnight through early positioning in lunar robotics, in-orbit servicing, and commercial space stations—markets we believe are in the early stages of a significant long-term growth cycle. For those looking at slides, the slide on the screen demonstrates a company that is executing today and building for tomorrow across multiple programs, markets, and geographies.

The contracted awards reflect the quality and loyalty of our customer relationships, and the opportunities reflect the breadth of what is ahead. The combination of both gives us a great deal of confidence in the growth trajectory of the business into 2027 and beyond. With that, I’ll hand it over to Guillaume to take you through this quarter’s financial results.

Guillaume Lavoie (Chief Financial Officer)

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone. I will now take you through our Q3 financial results in detail, starting with headline numbers, then moving through backlog, cash flow, and into our full-year outlook. Total revenue for the third quarter was 498 million, an increase of 22% year over year, mainly driven by higher volumes of work in Satellite Systems and GeoIntelligence. Satellite Systems contributed 358 million, up 26% year over year, driven by the increased volume of work on the Telesat Lightspeed program.

Robotics and Space Operations contributed 80 million, up 2% year over year, reflecting a steady volume of work on the Canadarm3 program. GeoIntelligence contributed 60 million, up 25% year over year, driven by higher volumes of work across programs, including the ISTAR program for the Royal Canadian Navy. This stronger revenue resulted in gross profit in the quarter of 126 million, an increase of 17% over the same period last year, while gross margin of 25.3% was a decrease compared to 26.4% in Q3 of 2025, driven by a change in program mix. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 96 million, up 16% year over year, driven by the higher volumes of work. This translated into adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.3%, a slight decline compared to 20.2% in Q3 last year due to a change in program mix and higher planned investments in SG&A. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, however, was consistent with our full-year margin guidance of 18% to 20%. Adjusted net income was 60 million, up 26% year over year, which translated into adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.37 in the quarter, unchanged year over year as the higher adjusted net income was offset by a higher number of shares outstanding following our share issuances in March and in July of this year.

Turning to backlog, we ended Q3 just under 4 billion, a decrease of 444 million compared to the third quarter of last year, but in line with the previous quarter. We are encouraged by the order momentum over the past two quarters as the pace of bookings has increased, resulting in gross bookings of approximately 1.6 billion through the first nine months of 2026, reflecting our ability to translate opportunities into firm contracts. This momentum has continued in Q4 with our recent announcement highlighting an award to begin work on supplying digital antenna subsystems for the IRIS Square satellites.

In fact, over the past 10 quarters our backlog has averaged over 4 billion, demonstrating the tremendous job our teams have done to capitalize on the demand environment in establishing a new baseline for the business. And while our significant backlog provides revenue visibility for 2027 and beyond, our 40 billion opportunity pipeline, including 10 billion in down-selected or follow-on opportunities, gives us confidence that we can grow our backlog further.

Shifting to cash flow, year to date, capital expenditures were 190 million compared to 168 million last year, keeping us on track with our stated full-year CapEx guidance range of 225 to 275 million. For the first nine months of the year, operating cash flow was 74 million compared to 353 million for the same period in 2025. The year-over-year difference reflects normal and expected working capital fluctuations on our major programs. However, the third quarter saw a positive working capital contribution resulting in operating cash generation of 106 million.

For Q3, free cash flow for the first nine months of the year was negative 116 million compared to positive 185 million for the same period in 2025. That swing reflects both the working capital normalization I just mentioned as well as higher capital expenditures as we continue to invest in the infrastructure that supports our growth. In the quarter, we were able to translate this strong operating cash flow result into 62 million of positive free cash flow.

From a balance sheet perspective, we are in a very strong position as we closed the quarter with a net cash position of 1.3 billion. We ended Q3 with total liquidity of 2.9 billion, including cash on hand of 2.2 billion, largely driven by the net proceeds received from our issuance of common shares and senior unsecured notes. The majority of this cash is earmarked to fund the closing of our BCT and CLS acquisitions, leaving us well capitalized heading into the closing of each transaction.

Turning to our outlook, on the strength of our year-to-date execution, we are raising our full-year 2026 guidance. We now expect revenue in the range of 1.9 to 1.95 billion, which implies a year-over-year growth of approximately 18% at the midpoint and is up from our previous range of 1.8 to 1.9 billion. We are also raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of 355 to 375 million, which implies year-over-year growth of approximately 13% at the midpoint and is up from 330 million to 370 million previously.

The rest of our guidance remains the same as we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% to 20%, capital expenditures to fall within 225 to 275 million, and free cash flow to be neutral to negative. As a reminder, our 2026 guidance continues to exclude contributions from BCT and CLS acquisitions, as both transactions remain subject to regulatory approvals and closing conditions. In closing, we made substantial progress on our growth strategy this year while continuing to deliver exceptional financial performance. I want to thank the entire MDA Space team, as they are the driving force behind our success. With that, operator, we are ready for questions.

OPERATOR

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by 1 on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by 2. If you’re using a speakerphone, please lift the handset first before pressing any keys. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question to allow enough time for others to enter the queue.

Individuals can re-enter the queue, if needed. And we have our first question from Adam Samuelson with Jefferies.

Adam Samuelson (Analyst)

Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Morning. So, Mike, I guess maybe the first question is on Telesat and your backlog and their program deployment schedule. I mean, they had some public comments last week around delaying the launch and alluded to some software integration challenges or issues on some of the initial pilot satellites. Can you just provide an update on where you are in terms of executing on that program? It doesn’t seem like from the revenues or the outlook that there’s anything in your business that’s really changed.

But how do we think about a change in deployment schedule for them and the launch schedule to impact your revenue realization into 2027?

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Yep. The key point that you mentioned there is that there’s no change to our financial forecasts for the business or for Telesat Lightspeed. And so the discussions that are ongoing and the discussions coming out of Telesat’s latest earnings call are just talking about the progress on their evolving network and what their planned schedules are. Obviously, on the scheduling side, there’s a lot of moving parts that work together to create a schedule.

It’s always up to Telesat to talk about their program and their schedule, with countering and balancing all the pieces in terms of completion of the satellites, the other parts of the network and system, and the access and availability of launch. So all that works together and contributes to them talking about schedule. For us, we continue to make really solid progress. We’re completing the Pathfinder satellites, we’re assembling all the elements to be able to go into full production of the satellites. And so that remains on pace for us. From a hardware perspective, we’re in a solid place. As was mentioned, software development, which includes MDA Space software development and Telesat software development, continues to be completed with all expectations that, of course, the Pathfinder satellites will be completed prior to the recently communicated launch dates.

Adam Samuelson (Analyst)

Okay, that’s helpful. If I could ask a follow-up maybe for Guillaume, thinking about the cash flow outlook for the year reiterated for this year. How do we think about cash conversion moving into 2027? You finished the Montreal facility investment. Wouldn’t think the CapEx needs are quite as significant. So should we think about an improvement in free cash conversion as we move into 2027 and 2028?

Guillaume Lavoie (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, thanks for the question, Adam. Look, we’re not ready to guide for 2027, right in the middle of our planning process. We’ll come to the market in early March with a more defined financial plan. This year we maintain neutral to negative. We had a good third quarter. We’ve consumed a bit of cash year to date. Our teams are executing very well. We monitor all the inflows, the outflows, and we’re managing that part of the free cash flow. And, you know, we’re also investing as per our plan in terms of the CapEx.

And so for the fourth quarter, we could see a bit of consumption of cash. But again, you know, there’s a lot of things in flux and we feel comfortable with our current guidance. With regards to 2027, we’re going to be ramping up on some new contracts. Mike talked about those. That’s all really exciting. It’s going to come with some cash advance, obviously, and then there’s a bit of an offset because, you know, we continue to be very busy with the Telesat Lightspeed contract, which will continue to consume a bit of working capital. And then on the CapEx, maybe a final point on that, you’re right, we’re ramping down on the capital intensity for the Montreal facility.

But with that said, we continue to have a lot of growth in front of us. Mike talked about product development, so that will entail some spending, particularly surrounding chip development and things of that nature. And so again, we’ll come with more details in the future. At the end of the day, we’ve been consistently converting EBITDA into operating cash. And then, you know, we’ve been able to fund our growth. Over the past five years we’ve spent 1.25 billion that we reinvested in our product lines and new facilities and things like that. And so we’ll continue to generate cash and allocate the capital to fuel our future growth.

Adam Samuelson (Analyst)

All right, great. That’s all very helpful color. I will pass it on. Thank you.

OPERATOR

We have our next question. Our next question comes from Aravinda Gallipathic with Canaccord.

Aravinda Gallipathic (Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to just focus on the opportunities ahead of you, primarily focusing on Europe. I know it’s been a relatively small piece of your mix geographically, but looking at what’s coming up, wanted to get your updated thoughts. Obviously, there’s talk of a sizable German constellation coming up. And then I know that with the CLS acquisition and also the investment coming out of CSG, your links in Europe sort of strengthen even further.

I was looking to see if there’s some additional color on that front. Thanks.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, I think you’re right. Like, I think Europe does represent an increasing opportunity. I think that the authorization to proceed for us to provide digital payload elements for the IRIS Squared constellation, I think that’s a really strategic entry point into a large European communications constellation that will, you know, have opportunities to grow as we go forward into the future. And it’s a really strong signal that our technologies are very relevant in the marketplace to a level where, you know, sometimes even when you’re, you know, you’re really searching for the maximum level of domestic content that, you know, you are enabling, in this case, Canadian technologies to be inserted into a European constellation. And so I think that’s a really important signal to the market.

I think that we see an increase in sovereignty programs all over the world, which includes Europe, as countries want to have increased control over their communications constellations from space and the Earth observation constellations from space. That posture increases the numbers of opportunities, increases our dialogue with folks in those countries around our ability to deliver, our ability to partner and contribute to become a bigger part of the community.

I think that Canada’s increased conversations with Europe in terms of enhancing the collaboration between Canada and Europe tightens that relationship and increases the opportunity for us for partnership. As you mentioned, our investment in CLS and having a strong part of our business in geo intelligence being led out of France, I think that’s going to be extremely strategic and differentiated for us in terms of relationship with the European Community.

So I think all these things will work together to cause increased activity. You mentioned the German constellation opportunities. And of course, Canada’s relationship with Germany as a result of the submarine deal results in a strong desire to, you know, share industrial capability back and forth between Canada and Germany, which, you know, creates significant opportunities there as well. So all these things are real. They just take time to work through, obviously.

And as you see in the news, there’s a lot of activities between Canada and Europe looking at how we can do more together and work more closely together. And our capabilities certainly have a strong potential to be part of all that.

OPERATOR

Thank you. Our next question is from Thanos Moscopoulos with BMO Capital Markets.

Thanos Moscopoulos (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Just on Chorus, you mentioned the contract traction you’ve had there. If you could clarify, the nature of some of that business—is that augmenting purchases as clients still are making from RADARSAT-2, or is there some new clients that you’re signing on as well? It’s just some color in terms of the customer base that you’re seeing for that. Thank you.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, for sure. It’s both. And certainly I think—I don’t have an exact number in my head, but from recollection it was well over a third of our letters of intent that will lead to future contracts were from new customers. So you’ve got a really strong mix of customers that have been with us for over a decade that want to keep going or, in a number of cases, expand the services we deliver to them. As a result of Chorus, especially with Chorus’s tipping and queuing capability, that’s a very attractive offering to customers that are looking for real-time and near real-time data services and information intelligence services. So, you know, that’s really strong. A number of new customers that are in play, for sure, like I mentioned.

In terms of the status of these things, there have been a number of letters of intent that we mentioned previously. A number of those have turned into contracts already. There are definitely other ones in active negotiation where, you know, contract documents are going back and forth between us and the purchasing party. So it’s a very active environment as we approach launch. And so it’s a very positive feeling around the whole thing.

Thanos Moscopoulos (Analyst)

Great. And Canada is working on the new national space strategy. What would be on your wish list for that? In terms of how this shapes up?

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Our wish list for national space strategy? I think that Canada has an opportunity at the national level to be a real leader in space. I think that, you know, we talk about—or not, we don’t want to talk about it, but the government talks about being like a leading sort of middle power and working, you know, across middle powers in the market. Canada has an opportunity to be, you know, a leading or the leading space middle power as we go forward into the future.

We have really strong space programs that are evolving in defense—you’ve heard of us, you know, our history providing surveillance, our history providing surveillance of space assets, you know, that are tracking all the satellites in space. The recent announcements around Escape to provide communications in the Arctic. There are other significant programs as Canada kind of stands taller and more independent on satellite-based communications for the military and on satellite-based Earth observation for the military.

There are a number of programs on the civilian side to expand Earth observation activity and the activities going forward to the moon for Canada to be, you know, an increasing part of the Artemis program, not just with NASA, but with other countries as well as they want to do things in both low Earth orbit and in collaboration towards the lunar activities. And then with launch, you know, there’s a growing demand for launch around the world and the focus on sovereignty increases the interest in people having, you know, sovereign access to launch. Launch has a geographic component to it where, for example, in the center of continental Europe, you really don’t have the opportunity to launch because you’re launching out over dense populations. The ability to launch off the east coast of Canada, for example, is, you know, very strategically relevant internationally.

And so for Canada to really have a strategy that says we can absolutely, of our 60-year history, design space capabilities here in Canada, build those space capabilities here in Canada, build those space capabilities at high volume, build those capabilities in collaboration with other countries as required and, hopefully soon, launch those capabilities from Canada as an integrated space program—and space as a key element of our middle power posture with other middle powers that we’re collaborating with.

That’s the type of vibe that we’d like to see in a space strategy or a space act, I think, moving forward. And certainly all indications are that, you know, that could trend in that direction. We see yesterday, last night, Canada announced a new president to the Canadian Space Agency. And it’ll be really interesting to see how his interests click into this and his skill sets now come to help really leverage the Canadian defense space industrial base, I mean, to be able to contribute towards some kind of a strategy like that.

Thanos Moscopoulos (Analyst)

Thanks, I appreciate the color. I’ll pass mine.

OPERATOR

We have our next question from Justin Lang with Morgan Stanley. Hi,

Justin Lang (Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Guillaume, I think you suggested last quarter that growth at Satellite Systems in the second half would be a bit more muted, and obviously very strong performance here in 3Q. So just want to understand maybe what changed and what we should expect from Satellite Systems to close the year here. Thanks.

Guillaume Lavoie (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, maybe I’ll take that one. Good morning, Justin. So, yeah, we are very, very pleased with, you know, how the team has performed at Satellite Systems. As you know, our revenue comes essentially from our backlog. So it’s all about execution, execution. You know, when we entered the second half, we, you know, did our planning and we were transparent, as we were at the time, expecting a bit of a slowdown due to a reduced level of activity on the Globalstar program.

With that said, there was a lot of, you know, activity on the, you know, supply chain side of things that allowed us to recognize a little bit more revenue. We expect that the team will continue to perform in the fourth quarter and that’s why we have now raised our guidance for 2026. Initially we were looking at a 10% year-over-year growth for the business—that’s the entire business, not just Satellite Systems—and now we’re expecting 18%. So that’s really good. Again, it’s our teams that are performing and delivering, which is good. It’s all about execution. And now we have pretty good visibility for the fourth quarter.

We expect that at the higher end of the range that revenue would be actually quite similar to the third quarter. And then because it’s all about execution, we keep always a bit of wiggle room. That’s why we kept 50 million range on the top line, just to make sure that we can deliver to the expectations. So all of this is very positive. You know, it’s all about execution and we’re demonstrating again that we’re progressing on all of our contracts, you know, obviously in Satellite Systems, but also throughout the business.

Justin Lang (Analyst)

That’s great color. Thanks. And maybe just one for Mike. I wanted to ask about Falcon 9 and whether you lose sleep at all over the potential for SpaceX to sunset that program in the coming years and maybe in your conversations with customers, are you picking up on any new anxieties around maybe announcing or trying to finance new constellations when the launch picture might be a little more murky? Thanks.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, so I’m not losing sleep yet, but it’s a legitimate watch point. As you know, I think the global community is keeping watch. I think that our current programs, our current customers, they have access to launch, they seem to have launch arrangements, and I’m not feeling any heightened anxiety in the current programs and portfolios that we’re talking to. The orders that are coming in, folks have plans related to launch. But it is a global topic of conversation as commercial investments in space continue, as government investments in space continue, as the U.S. wants to expand domestically its launch cadence in the United States and lean even more heavily on the SpaceX’s of the world. You know, it’s a legitimate watch point. So we certainly, or I certainly as a space company leader, get more involved globally with folks talking about launch capacity, launch programs, and contributing to conversations to engage that customers are not slowed down by access to launch moving forward into the future.

So it’s not a losing sleep topic at the moment, but it is a pay attention topic at the moment.

Justin Lang (Analyst)

Got it. Makes sense. Thanks.

OPERATOR

Our next question comes from Erin Kyle with CIBC.

Erin Kyle (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just as a follow-up to one of the earlier questions, as we think about progress on Telesat Lightspeed so far, could you guide us on what remains in the backlog for that contract or what percentage of the backlog Lightspeed represents? And then maybe as it relates to Telesat’s update, is there any milestone payments that MDA Space is expecting related to the completion of those Pathfinder satellites, or any change on the cash flow side?

Thank you.

Guillaume Lavoie (Chief Financial Officer)

Good morning, Aaron. I’ll take that. Yeah, sounds like it. Thank you, Mike. Good morning, Aaron. So look, on the backlog, we still have a substantial backlog on the Side contract. It’s going to continue to generate revenue for us, you know, obviously beyond 2026. So we expect revenues in 2027, 2028, 2029. So we’re sitting at around, you know, 1.4 billion in backlog for the contract. And then to your question surrounding the cash inflows or milestone payments, you know, we have a pretty, pretty sort of detailed milestone payment plan that’s broken down in many, many steps. And so there’s no major payments expected for the Pathfinder satellites. Everything is broken down in small steps that come with smaller payments. But that’s good because then we get consistent inflows quarter over quarter as we progress. And so that’s a good thing.

So no major payment related to the delivery of the Pathfinder satellites.

Aaron

That’s helpful. Thank you, Guillaume. And maybe just if I could ask one more for you. Just on the guidance, the revised guide on the margin side, just looking at the implied guide for Q4 at the midpoint, it does seem to imply a step down in Q4 margins. Is there anything to call out there or is it just reflecting some conservatism in the range that you’ve given for the year?

Guillaume Lavoie (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, thank you, Aaron. That’s a great question. Look, one thing that we don’t want to do is to start changing our guidance too much, and we’re not trying to be too, too precise here, you know. So we are reaffirming that this year will be 18% to 20%. Our performance this quarter was pretty good. Year to date, we performed well. So yes, if you look at the math, you get closer to, I think, 18% for Q4. We’ll see where we land at the end of the year.

Again, we’ll be within our range. There’s nothing particular to call out with the exception of the fact that we are investing in scaling up our business. That’s really, really important to us. I mean, we’re not necessarily focused that much on the next 12 months. We’re focused on the big goals. And as Mike stated, we want to be one of the top space companies in the world. And we used to be a $500 million business not so long ago, as Mike said, and now we’re going to be this year close to $2 billion.

And that comes with the need to scale up throughout the business. And you’ve seen our results and you can see a gradual increase in SG&A spending. I mean, we need to invest in it. We need to invest in AI capabilities, but also R&D. You know, we are working already to continue to enhance our product roadmap. And so we need to invest, and so nothing major here to call out, but that’s a trend that is likely to also continue into 2027. But again, we’ll be within our range for the year.

OPERATOR

Thank you. We have our next question from Seth Seifman with JP Morgan.

Seth Seifman (Analyst)

Hey, thanks very much and morning everyone. Definitely heard what you said earlier about not getting into 2027 yet. But I think we’ve spoken on the last call about kind of solidly double-digit organic growth next year and just wanted to see if that’s still the case.

Guillaume Lavoie (Chief Financial Officer)

Hey, Seth. Well, you know, we’re poised to see another solid year of growth next year. You know, we’re not ready to call out a specific number. We would expect solid growth, double-digit growth on the current business. You know, what’s happening essentially is that next year we’ll continue to drive a lot of revenue coming out of Telesat. I’ve talked about the backlog there. There’s still a lot of work ahead for us on that program. Canadarm3 will be a steady contributor to revenue next year.

And then we’ve talked about that already. The Globalstar next-generation LEO constellation work will start to gradually ramp down. With that said, you know, we’ve booked a lot of orders and we’re very pleased about the commercial developments. We have the additional satellite for the Raidersat constellation, we have the new Mitsubishi Electric contract, we have the antennas for Airbus. You know, on the OneWeb constellation, we just announced a subsystem contract for the IRIS Square constellation. And in addition to that, I mean, we’re going to see solid growth in the Geo Intelligence segment coming partly from Chorus, but also on existing programs on the non-space defense side of things.

So from our perspective, there’s going to be growth, solid growth next year on our current business. And then when we look at the addition of, you know, CLS and BCT, that’s going to be meaningful revenue added to our top line. I mean, on a pro forma 2026 basis it’s like $700 million. And from our perspective, you know, we continue to grow this business. We allocate capital to fuel our growth. Sometimes it’s growth capex, but sometimes it’s also M&A. And so all of that combined will result in a very, very significant growth for MDA Space in 2027.

But again, we’ll come with some more details in a few months.

Seth Seifman (Analyst)

Okay, okay, excellent, thanks. And then maybe a little bit bigger picture. You talked about the strategy of kind of being a leading provider of space capability for sovereigns around the world. You also have talked about potentially becoming a prime in the U.S. and doing more in the U.S. When you think about those two different strategic routes, are there ways in which they’re kind of exclusive? Is it possible to do both? And to the extent that the desire is to be a provider and a leading provider, and perhaps the leading provider, to a lot of the world ex-U.S., I guess why and, you know, kind of what gives you the confidence and what makes it a priority to, you know, also invest and look to grow in the U.S.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, so we’re actually uniquely positioned to be able to do both as a standalone space company headquartered in Canada with very, very high levels of R&D and development and high-volume production of full satellites, but of course as a result of that, the satellite sub-elements here in Canada. And so in terms of having an acquisition in BCT in the United States leading to what will be the creation of MDA Space USA and having that under the appropriate structures, that it can deliver to the U.S. Government, the U.S. Department of Defense, as a prime contractor in the United States, that is a strong position in itself that gives access to well over half the world’s space market. So that’s a very important footprint. That team being 18 years experienced is, you know, with the support of the corporation of course, is going to be fully capable of delivering our product lines.

Aurora Midnight, for example, very, very strong world-leading technologies, into, you know, a very strong market. The fact that we’ve invested in products really also enables this stuff whereby we’ve productized MDA Aurora. We’re productizing MDA Chorus. We productize our robotics in MDA Skymaker, which means that, you know, we can take a U.S. entity, for example, and set up the assembly process and set up the supply chain to deliver into it so that they can produce and deliver domestically in their country. Similarly, that same product base can be partnered with folks in Europe to be able to assemble and deliver, if necessary, domestically in Europe.

Our product base on something like a satellite could be configured to be majority U.S. components and subsystems in a U.S. solution and built and delivered in the United States. And it can be configured to be large majority European components and subsystems and assembled and delivered as a European product in Europe. Because all the design processes have occurred here in Canada, then they’re largely, you know, they are ITAR-free, so they’re not managed by the U.S. Government’s State Department’s export processes like all the U.S. technologies would be.

So we’re uniquely positioned to be able to take a really strong product and technology base that we developed and matured here in Canada and then create a solid standalone business unit in the United States that can act as a U.S. prime and have the appropriate business development, management, and execution in the U.S. to take care of the U.S. market while we collaborate and partner with new friends in Europe to be able to deliver into that market at the same time.

Seth Seifman (Analyst)

Thank you. Thanks very much.

OPERATOR

Our next question is from Ken Herbert with Royal Bank of Canada.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Good morning, Ken.

Ken Herbert (Analyst)

Yeah, hey, good morning, Mike and Guillaume. You know, Mike, just, I wanted to take a step back. You’ve obviously talked a lot about increased opportunities across defense. And even before we think about BCT and the other CLS in Europe, as you look to 2027, without getting specific on numbers, but where do you see the best sort of optionality as you talk about the opportunity pipeline today? Where do you see the best opportunity to really convert that into bookings in ’27?

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

I think that the—and we’ll work on talking about the future a little bit as we come into giving guidance for ’27 in March. And, you know, Guillaume and I have started the process of thinking about how to help everybody understand the future on some of these larger defense programs, like something like an Escape, for example, in Canada, which is a public topic of conversation. You know, these things come in phases, and so these are very, very large programs that are in the billions of dollars range that come in in chunks.

And so, you know, we’ve done a little bit of work over the last year on Escape, obviously seen a strong contracting piece of it in the military Ka portion to Telesat to leverage the Lightspeed constellation that’s resulted in us getting $500 million of additional orders there as just one initial bite out of that program. But there are other significant pieces to come. But they’ll come in orders. I think those types of programs will start to generate orders, but they’ll come in chunks because military programs, especially when you’re the prime, you know, you have to go through definition phase activities to be able to get things all planned and organized. And then you’ll get, like, larger and larger chunks as you get in and closer to and into full production. So we’re going to work on how to help people characterize and understand that a little bit.

But I do expect in the coming months to start to see movement on some of those. I think we’ll start to see more opportunities that we can talk about if we can figure out how to do that. And then we will for sure continue to see the opportunities to contribute technologies and getting orders on military programs like you saw this year, you know, with things like contributing to IRIS Squared or things like contributing to Japan defense satellites with Mitsubishi Electric and our continued orders into U.S. primes for U.S. systems.

You know, I would expect those types of things to continue through the year where we’re partnering and supplying elements. So it’ll be becoming getting orders on part of military programs and partnerships internationally and then talking about the next phases of contracts where we can be the prime in Canada.

Ken Herbert (Analyst)

Thanks, Mike. I’ll pass it back there.

OPERATOR

Our next question is from Doug Taylor with National Bank.

Doug Taylor (Analyst)

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. Maybe a related question, Mike, can I ask another question about Iris Square and your ambition there? You refer to that as an entry point in your prepared remarks. It’s clearly a large program. So can I get you to comment on what success there might look like? Is it for antennas for the full program with layer two? Are you angling for more content per satellite on all the layers as that supply chain is finalized? How should we think about that opportunity?

Yeah, it does. Thank you for that added color, and let me squeeze in my follow-up. A few press releases recently around supporting new drone programs with 49 North. It’s been some time since MDA Space had a material drone-related business. I think you need to go back a decade. But perhaps you can help us think about how you guys are sizing up that opportunity and where you think MDA Space can, you know, could generate meaningful business there.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, I think that the way I think about it is we have a lot to offer these types of programs. We have full satellite technical solutions in MDA AURORA for digital, like the most modern digital communications that is in high production, that can deliver very quickly, probably as quick as anyone else could deliver or faster than others can deliver in the world at that level and sophistication of a satellite. And so, you know, we’re here, we’re available, and we’re ready to go.

However, those programs have high geopolitical and geo-content elements to them. When governments sponsor large multibillion-dollar or multibillion-euro initiatives like that, you know, they want to be doing their best to exercise and advance their domestic industrial bases. So the entry point kind of comment is that, like, you know, right now in the critical element to ensure a modern digital communications satellite, we’re here, you know, we can take the MDA AURORA antennas, we can take some of the core elements, we can provide those into Thales Alenia Space, and we can enable them to have a modern capability in the first layer as their industrial base picks up their orders and continues to perform as announced. You know, that may well work out well.

There may be other places, though, where the ready-to-go aspects of our solution at the digital systems level, at the bus level, at the full satellite level—like, whatever—like, we’re just here and we’re on the team. And so as the Canada–Europe relationship gets tighter, as we build stronger relationships with partners in Europe to be able to deliver these systems, as we ourselves become more present in Europe following the CLS acquisition, I think that, you know, there will be more opportunity for us to be able to offer more into these programs.

And if they hold their ambitions around schedule and we’re here with, you know, proven technologies that are going to have heritage that are ready to deliver, then I just think that, you know, we’ll do as much as we can to be helpful in those environments while those governments are trying to also balance their geopolitical situation. Does that make sense? Yeah, if you look at historical drone contracts in Canada, 49 North is, you know, one of the, if not the, larger drone program deliverers into the Canadian military. So we had the contracts to deliver and operate the drones with the Canadian military in Afghanistan. And that same team had contracts with non-government organizations delivering drone activities and services to monitor activities in Ukraine pre the Russian invasion. So those are pretty modern drone programs there.

That team has a strong position on the RPAS program with General Atomics, which is currently active. We are actively part of the team delivering the drones, those General Atomics drones on RPAS, into the Canadian government. We’ve just won, like in the last 24 months, the RCN ISTAR program. We are delivering the drones to the Canadian Navy to be able to operate off the surface ships in the Canadian Navy. So we are modern, we are current. We have active contracts for drone delivery activities with the Canadian military today.

And therefore, you know, that team is naturally signing agreements and collaboration things whereby we can produce more and be part of more for Canada’s drone posture leading forward into the future. In addition to some of the things that you might see whereby, as Canada wants to be more collaborative and be more supportive of Ukraine, you know, our industrial base can do more there, and we’re part of that. We can, through our partnership, stand up and do more to help Canada provide capability to countries that are part of its foreign relations program.

So that remains an important element. The autonomous systems remain an important element of 49 North’s future. Thank you.

OPERATOR

That is all the time we have for questions today. Please reach out to the IR team with any further questions. I will now turn the call over to Mike Greenley for closing remarks.

Mike Greenley (Chief Executive Officer)

Okay, well, thanks very much. Hopefully folks have picked up the message here of another strong quarter. It’s been, it’s always great to have a beat-and-raise moment, and we’ll take them whenever we can get them. And so we appreciate the dialogue around that. We’ll stay focused, getting closed, and be back in the new year to talk about how that ended, and then answer all the questions everyone’s looking for in terms of talking about 2027 and beyond as we pull all that together.

We’ll work hard here to get these acquisitions closed and hopefully have a bigger story to tell when we talk again in March. Thanks very much, everyone. Have a good holiday season.

OPERATOR

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. We thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

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