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    Blackstone Stock In Focus After Earnings And Dividend Update

    Simply Wall St·11/05/2026 11:43:45
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    • Blackstone reported third quarter 2026 revenue of US$3,062.89 million and net income of US$662.37 million, with basic earnings per share from continuing operations of US$0.83, and declared a quarterly dividend of US$1.12 per share to be paid on November 9, 2026.
    • The nine month figures show revenue of US$11,724.46 million and net income of US$2,541.29 million, which outlines how Blackstone is converting its large AUM base into fee income and distributable cash, while continuing to return capital through dividends.
    • This sets the context for understanding how Blackstone's higher earnings per share and fresh dividend declaration relate to its existing investment narrative.

    Scan how Blackstone’s latest dividend and earnings profile compares with income-focused peers using the hand picked 5 dividend fortresses.

    Blackstone Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Blackstone, investors need to be comfortable with a fee driven model that depends on growing assets under management, harvesting performance fees and maintaining fundraising momentum even when markets feel choppy. The latest results show higher earnings per share and stronger nine month profit, which supports that picture. The most important short term swing factor remains how quickly exit markets and deal activity convert into realized performance fees.

    The biggest operational risk still sits in parts of the real estate portfolio and broader credit conditions. Loan issues such as the Northern Dallas default and a large wall of maturing US apartment debt could pressure valuations and fee income if problems spread. The recent quarter does not remove that risk, but it also does not materially change it.

    The dividend declaration of US$1.12 per share is the most relevant announcement to set against this earnings release. Income focused holders watch that payout closely because Blackstone already distributes a high share of reported profits, and the dividend is flagged as not well covered by earnings or free cash flow. Any pressure on payouts can quickly influence sentiment around the stock.

    For catalysts, that distribution policy is directly linked to how reliably Blackstone turns record AUM and its AI related infrastructure, perpetual vehicles and insurance partnerships into cash earnings. Stronger fee generation and realized performance income would support ongoing dividends despite high debt and more expensive funding. Weaker monetization, tighter financing or further real estate stress would make the current payout and future distributions a more central risk for investors to weigh.

    What Blackstone’s Forecasts Say About Earnings Power

    Analysts are effectively asking investors to treat Blackstone as a business that can turn its current scale into much larger profits over time. The core assumption is that annual revenue expands at about 12.6% over the next few years while profit margins rise from 22.7% today to 51.1% by around 2029. That combination feeds directly into the earnings and valuation story that sits behind the latest dividend and the wider income case.

    On the earnings line, the consensus view is that profit climbs from US$3.5b today to US$11.3b by 2029, with earnings per share reaching US$8.74. That is roughly a tripling of total earnings in dollar terms, which is a large step up in profitability for an asset manager already working with a very big AUM base. Forecasts also build in about 2.2% annual growth in the share count over the next 3 years, so part of the future per share outcome depends on how new equity issuance compares with those higher forecast profits.

    Valuation assumptions sit alongside these operating estimates. The consensus workup suggests that by 2029 Blackstone generates about US$22.1b of revenue and US$11.3b of earnings while trading on a P/E of 13.4x, using a discount rate close to 8.1%. That multiple would be lower than both the current P/E of 25.0x and the cited sector figure of 37.6x, which means the scenario combines higher earnings with a cheaper assumed earnings multiple. For readers comparing this with the current share price of US$109.98, analysts collectively point to a price target of US$140.55, with individual estimates ranging from US$116.00 to US$184.00.

    Blackstone's narrative projects US$22.1b revenue and US$11.3b earnings by 2029. This setup assumes 12.6% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about US$7.8b from US$3.5b today.

    Uncover why Blackstone's fair value indicates a 12% potential upside to its current price before that discount closes.

    NYSE:BX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:BX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Some of the most optimistic analysts frame AI linked infrastructure as the real swing factor for Blackstone, pointing to projections of about US$23.0b in revenue and US$13.7b in earnings by 2029 before this latest dividend cut and earnings update. You can treat that as one possible storyline and compare it with more cautious views to see how opinions might shift after these results.

    Explore 4 other Blackstone fair value estimates, including one that suggests potential upside of as much as 36% from the current price.

    Decide For Yourself

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so trust your own judgment.

    Looking for more Blackstone-like investment ideas?

    Once you have formed a view on Blackstone, it can help to line it up against a wider watchlist of opportunities that match your own risk appetite, income needs and balance sheet preferences. The Simply Wall St Screener is built for that kind of side by side comparison so you can pressure test whether Blackstone still earns a spot on your shortlist.