China Merchants Securities: Overall profit continues to recover, but individual stocks are still divided, and the AI sector continues to be booming

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that the overall revenue of the computer industry grew steadily from January to September '26, and net profit due to mother and deducted increased dramatically, but the median net profit growth rate of individual stocks changed from positive to negative. In terms of the quality of growth, the industry's gross margin remained flat year on year from January to September '26. The overall expense ratio narrowed during the period, and the industry's operating cash flow in the third quarter was under pressure. Among them, AI is the core engine of industry growth. The performance of AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, and AI application segments continues to be outstanding. It is recommended to focus on the core goals of the relevant industrial chain.

The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

From a growth perspective, the overall revenue of the industry grew steadily from January to September 2026, with a sharp increase in net profit attributable to mother and net profit, but the median net profit growth rate of individual stocks changed from positive to negative

From January to September '26, the computer industry achieved a total revenue of 881,259 billion yuan. YoY was +12.31% under the overall law, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.67 pcts; the median revenue growth rate of individual stocks in the industry was 2.72%. The total net profit of the computer industry from January to September '26 was 22.054 billion yuan. YoY was +67.72% under the overall law, maintaining a high upward trend; the median net profit growth rate of individual stocks in the industry was -10.06%, and the growth rate turned positive and negative year-on-year. From January to September '26, the total amount of non-net profit deducted by the computer industry was 14.170 billion yuan, YoY +188.31%; the median growth rate of non-net profit withheld by individual shares in the industry was -8.45%, and the growth rate changed from positive to negative. In terms of distribution, 57.61% of companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth in January-September '26 (57.19% in the same period last year), of which 5.37% of the company's revenue growth rate exceeded 50%, and the revenue growth rate of 52.24% fell in the 0%-50% range; 45.07% of companies achieved net profit growth, reversal or loss reduction (55.99% in the same period last year). Among them, 11.04% of companies achieved a significant increase in net profit (>= 50%), and 6.87% of companies achieved a slight increase in loss, 17.01% The company achieved loss reduction. Looking at a single quarter, the total revenue of the 26Q3 industry was 318.752 billion yuan. YoY was +18.24% under the overall law, increasing the year-on-year growth rate by 13.86 pcts; the median growth rate of individual stocks was 3.98%. Total net profit attributable to mother was $8.199 billion, YoY +21.91% under the overall law; the median growth rate of individual stocks was -5.87%, changing from positive to negative year-on-year. In terms of distribution, 58.51% of companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth (56.29% in the same period last year); 47.46% of companies achieved net profit growth, loss reversal, or loss reduction (50.30% in the same period last year).

From the perspective of growth quality, the industry's gross margin remained flat year on year from January to September '26. The overall expense ratio narrowed during the period, and the industry's operating cash flow in the third quarter was under pressure

The overall gross margin of the industry from January to September '26 was 22.36%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.08pct. The total cost rate for the period was 20.06%, down 1.19pct year on year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 6.19%, down 0.66 pct year on year; the management expense ratio was 4.93%, down 0.47 pct year on year; and the R&D expense ratio was 8.33%, down 0.52 pct year on year. Looking at a single quarter, the overall gross margin level of the 26Q3 industry was 22.35%, down 0.45pct year on year; the cost ratio for the period was 19.22%, down 1.85pct year on year. In terms of cash flow, the overall net operating cash flow of the industry from January to September '26 was -43.99 billion yuan, an increase over the net outflow for the same period last year. The overall net operating cash flow for 26Q3 was $431 million, down 87.98% from the same period last year. From January to September '26, the total amount of industry accounts receivable and contract liabilities was 207.960 billion yuan, YoY +48.80%. From January to September '26, the total amount of industry accounts receivable and contract assets was 368.154 billion yuan, YoY -1.28%. Industry accounts receivable management was slightly effective.

Looking at segments, the AI industry chain's performance is strong

On the revenue side, most sectors achieved revenue growth from January to September 2026. Of the 8 key segments in our statistics (see appendix for sector components), a total of 6 sectors achieved positive revenue growth from January to September '26. The top three median revenue growth rates were AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, and AI applications, which increased 22.09%/19.57%/5.64%, respectively. Compared to January-September '25, revenue growth in the four sectors of AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, financial IT, and cybersecurity accelerated year-on-year. On the profit side, the median growth rate for a total of 7 sectors after deducting non-profit was positive. The median growth rates of AI computing power infrastructure, AI applications, and AI data services were in the top three, at 105.02%/30.60%/14.20%, respectively. Compared with January-September '25, the growth rate of non-net profit deducted in the four sectors of AI computing power infrastructure, AI applications, cybersecurity, and medical IT accelerated from January to September '26. Looking at a single quarter, a total of 6 sectors achieved positive revenue growth in 26Q3. The 26Q3 AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, and AI application sectors had the highest median revenue growth rate, at 28.61%/26.73%/2.03%, respectively; revenue growth in the four sectors of AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, financial IT, and cybersecurity accelerated year-on-year. In 26Q3, the median growth rate of five sectors after deducting non-profit was positive. From highest to lowest, the growth rates were AI computing power infrastructure, medical IT, AI applications, AI data services, and Xinchuang, YoY +126.90%/27.01%/25.14%/3.75%/3.75%.

Investment suggestions: Taken together, the AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, and AI application sectors showed high performance. It is recommended to focus on the core targets of the relevant industrial chain.

Risk warning: Policy support such as Xinchuang and Internet Security falls short of expectations; technological development in the AI industry falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; technological innovation falls short of expectations.