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Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
It's been a good week for Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-yearly results, and the shares gained 8.0% to JP¥3,180. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥1.1t were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 19% to hit JP¥70.82 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Japan Airlines from eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.22t in 2027. If met, it would imply a reasonable 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 12% to JP¥214 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.20t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥212 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Japan Airlines
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,275, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Japan Airlines at JP¥3,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,500. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Japan Airlines shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Japan Airlines' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Japan Airlines' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Japan Airlines going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Japan Airlines is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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