Fidelity National (FIS) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

DATE

Wed, Nov 04, 2026

CALL PARTICIPANTS

• CEO and President - Stephanie L. Ferris
• CFO - James Kehoe
• Senior Vice President - Georgios Mihalos

TAKEAWAYS

• Pro Forma Revenue Growth -- 3.7% in the third quarter, driven by recurring revenue growth of 2.5%.
• Adjusted EBITDA Margin -- 42.9%, representing 94 basis points of expansion on a pro forma basis driven by favorable revenue mix and cost savings.
• Adjusted EPS -- $1.61, representing a 6.6% increase compared to the prior year.
• Year-to-Date Free Cash Flow -- $1.9 billion, representing 57% growth and achieving 85% of the full-year target.
• Banking Solutions Pro Forma Revenue -- $2.5 billion, representing 3.9% growth due to strong demand in regional banking and new account sales.
• Capital Market Solutions Pro Forma Revenue -- $823 million, growing 3% year over year despite a 20% decline in professional services revenue.
• 2026 Pro Forma Revenue Guidance -- 3.1% to 3.6%, revised downward to account for client-led implementation delays and large bank consolidation.
• 2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance -- 1.2% to 2.4% growth, reflecting a more prudent outlook based on evolving market demand.
• 2027 Preliminary Revenue Framework -- down 0.5% to up 1.0%, reflecting a 250 to 300 basis point headwind from declining nonrecurring revenue.
• Nonrecurring Revenue Headwinds -- $400 million projected impact in 2027, driven by the lapping of strategic partnerships and lower termination fees.
• Strategic Distribution Partnership Lapping -- $140 million impact on 2027 revenue growth as the company cycles through high-license revenue generated in 2026.
• Bank Termination Fees -- $100 million expected reduction in 2027 compared to the prior year as large-scale merger activity normalizes.
• Low-Margin Equipment Business Exit -- $75 million to $100 million revenue reduction anticipated in 2027 as management deprioritizes non-strategic operations.
• Capital Markets License Reduction -- $50 million to $75 million impact in 2027 as demand shifts from license products to cloud-based subscription models.
• Cyber and Security Investment -- 20 to 30 basis points of anticipated margin pressure in 2027 as the company prioritizes infrastructure resiliency.
• Account Growth -- 550,000 new accounts in community banking and 875,000 in regional banking year to date.
• Client Retention -- recurring ACV renewal rate reached the high 90s, an increase of over 100 basis points from last year.
• Asset Divestiture -- over $100 million in gross proceeds from the sale of a noncore prepaid business in October 2026.
• Total Debt -- $20.8 billion as of the end of the third quarter, with a leverage ratio of 3.5x.
• Incremental Capital Expenditures -- $50 million expected increase in 2027 to support technology refreshes and enhanced security measures.

Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email pr@fool.com

RISKS

• Kehoe warned that "the revenue reduction we are now forecasting for the fourth quarter will weigh on EBITDA and margins," specifically citing a $100 million reduction in nonrecurring revenue assumptions.
• Ferris stated that "we started to see some client directed conversion delays primarily in our larger client base," noting that these shifts and bank consolidation timing will affect near-term results.
• Management noted that preliminary expectations for 2027 adjusted EPS indicate a decline in the high single to low double digit range due to investment cycles and nonrecurring revenue headwinds.

SUMMARY

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (NYSE:FIS) reported third quarter results featuring pro forma revenue growth of 3.7% and adjusted EPS of $1.61. Management updated the company's full-year 2026 outlook to account for client-led implementation delays and the impact of large bank consolidations. The company also introduced a preliminary framework for 2027, projecting a transition year where a significant reduction in nonrecurring revenue will temporarily pressure margins and earnings. Management stated that these headwinds are expected to dissipate by 2028, leading to a return to normalized growth patterns.

• Management reported that the company's account management coverage teams were increased by 15% to improve client success and technical support outcomes.
• CEO Ferris stated that "trust and resiliency are at the center of everything we do," noting that investments in resiliency have reduced service incidents by 40% year to date.
• The company is participating in Anthropics Project Glasswing, using AI to find and remediate software vulnerabilities at scale.
• Management noted that clients are shifting away from on-premise software licenses toward subscription models to better utilize data for AI-native products.
• The company recently commercially launched its anti-money laundering investigation aide, the first of several planned AI-based banking agents.
• FIS divested a noncore prepaid asset in October 2026, generating over $100 million in gross sale proceeds as part of an ongoing strategic portfolio review.
• CFO James Kehoe announced he is stepping down after three years, with Alexandra Dawn Brooks appointed as interim CFO effective Nov. 5, 2026.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• ACV: Annual Contract Value, representing the annualized value of a customer's contract.
• Agentic Banking: A form of banking technology utilizing autonomous AI agents to perform tasks such as anti-money laundering investigations.
• EBT: Electronic Benefits Transfer, an electronic system used by government agencies to provide financial benefits to recipients.
• Pro Forma: A method of calculating financial results that assumes recent acquisitions or divestitures occurred at the beginning of the period for comparison purposes.
• SaaS: Software as a Service, a software licensing and delivery model in which software is licensed on a subscription basis.
• Termination Fees: One-time fees paid by clients to end a contract early, frequently occurring during bank mergers and acquisitions.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Operator: Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And thank you for standing by. Welcome to the FIS third quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question at that time, you would need to press star-11 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Georgios Mihalos. Sir, please begin.

Georgios Mihalos: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for the FIS Third Quarter 26 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being webcasted. Today's news release, corresponding presentation and webcast are all available on our website at fisglobal.com. On the call with me this morning is our CEO and president, Stephanie L. Ferris; our CFO, James Kehoe. Stephanie will begin the call with a strategic and operational update, followed by James who will review our financial results. Turning to Slide 3. Today's remarks will contain forward looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as described in the press release and other filings with the SEC.

The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Please refer to the safe harbor language. Also, throughout this call, we will be presenting non-GAAP information, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings, and adjusted net earnings per share. These are important financial performance measures for the company, but are not financial measures as defined by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP information to the GAAP financial information is presented in our earnings release. And now, I will turn the call over to Stephanie.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Thank you, Georgios, and good morning, everyone. FIS delivered a solid third quarter. We grew revenue, expanded margins, and generated strong free cash flow. Demand for our solutions remained strong, and we continue to simplify our portfolio closing on the divestiture of a noncore prepaid asset. Our clients are asking more of us than ever. They want strong cyber protection and the right controls around AI. That is why trust and resiliency are at the center of everything we do. With approximately 12% of the world's economy flowing through our systems, keeping our clients safe, our most important responsibility. And we are investing on their behalf. Which I will address this morning.

I want to thank all of our colleagues around the world as they continue to support our clients and each other this demanding environment. With elevated security needs, and changing client behavior, our initiatives to continue delivering for our clients are also resulting in a revised guidance outlook for the year. In a dynamic industry environment, we are deliberately taking a more prudent approach. Now let me turn to our outlook. Which we are updating today. I want to be very clear about why. 3 things are driving this. First, we are prioritizing recurring revenue as market demand is accelerating shifts from traditional licenses to our new subscription and SaaS products.

Second, over the course of the third quarter, we started to see some client directed conversion delays primarily in our larger client base. And some impacts from the timing around large bank consolidation. Our outlook builds in updated time lines to account for these. Third, we are building flexibility to invest in and security to enable both client implementations and the prioritization of cyber activities. These factors will weigh on our results in the fourth quarter and 2027 and we expect them to largely fade in 2028. This morning, I will walk through our third quarter results, our strategy and priorities and the commercial momentum we are building.

James will then cover our financial results, our updated 2026 outlook, and our preliminary framework for 2027. Turning to Slide 5 for third quarter highlights. Pro forma revenue grew 3.7%. With recurring revenue growth of 2.5%. Adjusted EBIT margin was 42.9%, with expansion of 94 basis points driven by favorable revenue mix, and savings from our cost programs. Adjusted EPS was 1.61 up 6.6%. Free cash flow remains a real strength. Year to date free cash flow of $1.9 billion is up 57%. Recurring ACV sales are up on a year to date basis.

In capital markets, where we told you last quarter that sales were behind plan, recurring sales improved 26% from the second quarter due to commercial excellence and focus on recurring sales initiatives. Last quarter, we said we would address it, and we are. And we simplified our portfolio. Closing on the divestiture of a noncore prepaid asset within the banking solutions segment. Together, these results reflect our profitability, strong cash generation and healthy demand. Turning to Slide 6. We are continuing to invest in our strategy, adding the total issuing solutions business to our portfolio. Resulting in a more scaled and cash generative business.

Today, we support more than 90 million core banking accounts and more than 1 billion cardholder accounts on file, and we have processed more than 52 billion card transactions year to date. Our clients continue to grow, and we grow alongside them. On an organic basis, all our key metrics are growing at mid single digits. Delivering at scale and growing with our clients is translating into stronger free cash flow. Which has grown from $1.2 billion year to date 2025 to $1.9 billion year to date 2026. Turning to Slide 7. Operational excellence specifically commercial excellence, and improving the client experience is a commitment we have discussed since Investor Day. And we are seeing real progress.

Way of example in commercial excellence, within our banking segment, we are seeing a pronounced shift towards higher margin products. Regarding the client experience, Earlier this year, we made a significant investment in account management. Increasing our coverage teams by 15% and deepening our coverage with specialized client success managers account directors, and technical account managers. Our investments in resiliency are also paying off. Reducing service incidents by 40% year to date and cutting client notification times by nearly 90%. And finally, our investments in AI-native products have yielded 10 new products, including our new anti-money laundering agent. Our clients are seeing a better experience. and it is showing up in higher renewal rates with less pricing compression.

Our recurring ACV renewal rate is in the high 90s. Up over 100 basis points from last year. And pricing compression on renewal has also improved. As discussed in previous quarters, we are also building durability and efficiency into the business. 72% of total issuing solutions revenue is under contract through 2029 and beyond. And we continue to be focused on efficiencies across our business. Stronger, longer client relationships are the foundation of the recurring revenue we are prioritizing. Turning to Slide 8. I outline our near term priorities beginning with trust. Trust comes first. Our clients running meaningful share of the world's financial system on FIS technology. Their safety and the safety of their customers is paramount.

Threat environment is changing quickly, and AI is accelerating how fast vulnerabilities can be found by defenders and attackers alike. We have been investing materially in infrastructure resiliency and cyber since 2024. FIS is 1 of only a few financial technology companies participating in Anthropics Project Glasswing. And that work has shown us firsthand how quickly the threat landscape for our industry is changing. So we will continue to step up our investment and we are fighting AI risk with AI. Using advanced technology to find and remediate software vulnerabilities at speed and scale. Our technology, product, and client teams are at the center of this work.

We have been communicating our approach at every level with our clients and with regulators. And they have welcomed the focus and rigor we are bringing. We are convinced this is the right thing to do for our clients. And for the financial services industry. Next is sales. And demand for our solutions remains strong. Our modernized products are driving demand because clients can use them in the cloud without the customization and long deployments that on premise licenses require. Our channel driven value proposition and go to market are winning new logos. And we are expanding our reach through strategic partnerships with resellers, system integrators, advisory firms, and marketplaces.

In 2026, we signed strategic distribution partnerships that unlock new channels for our best-in-class products. Those agreements generated significant license revenue this year that we do not expect to repeat in 2027. However, we expect these partnerships to expand our new sales as we activate distribution with our partners. We are also advancing innovation. And agentic banking is gaining momentum. Earlier this month, our AML Investigation Aide became commercially available to US financial institutions. Deployed first at 1 of our design partners. This is the first of many additional agents in our pipeline. Finally, our evaluation of strategic alternatives is ongoing, and you can expect to get a more substantial update from us in early 27. Turning to Slide 9.

Demand is strong across every client segment we serve, and in each 1, a flagship product leads the way. In community banking and credit unions, we have sold 550 thousand new accounts year to date. Our full suite regulatory grade core banking platform is also helping launch de novo banks. In regional banking, we are scaling with acquirers. As banks consolidate, they are choosing our core ecosystem. We have sold over 875 thousand new accounts year to date, winning through bank M&A and our best in class suite of products in commercial banking. With large financial institutions, are driving cross sales through value added services, including loyalty and payments. Cross sell expansion is up 76% year over year.

And with fintechs, our money movement capabilities are powering innovation, with new client wins up 23% year over year. Across all 4 channels, the pattern is the same. A leading product opens the door, and the breadth of our portfolio deepens the relationship over time. Each of those relationship adds to our recurring revenue base. We are also extending our reach beyond our direct sales force. Through strategic partners, we are reaching new clients. This channel is already contributing 5% to 10% of our new sales, and we expect that share to grow over the medium term. In closing, let me reframe our outlook.

As I discussed at the beginning of the call, we are deliberately taking a more prudent outlook. Based on factors that emerged during the third quarter. We are making deliberate choices to build a more recurring, more resilient FI. Our clients are asking for new products, innovation, and for the highest standards of security and resiliency. We will meet both. So we are planning for a wider range of margin outcomes in 2027 to support continued investment.

These factors, together with the lack of demand for licenses, the activation of our strategic distribution partnerships, and higher than normal termination fees as a result of larger scale bank consolidation, will reduce nonrecurring revenue and pressure margins in the fourth quarter and into 2027. However, it should create more durable recurring revenue in 2027 and beyond. I want to be clear about how we see this. Our outlook is deliberately prudent, as we navigate a rapidly changing market. It is not indicative of the long term revenue and earnings power of this business. As these headwinds largely fade in 2028, we expect a return to more normalized growth.

Before I pass it to James, I wanna take a moment to recognize him for his financial leadership and many contributions to FIS. James has been a very strong partner to me and the FIS leadership team over the past 3 years. His financial acumen and leadership have been instrumental in strengthening our financial foundation, and advancing several important strategic initiatives that have positioned FIS well for our next chapter of growth. I am grateful for his partnership and thankful for his continued support and commitment to ensuring a seamless transition in the coming weeks and months. I also wanna recognize Alexandra Dawn Brooks. Our chief accounting officer, who will serve as interim chief financial officer beginning tomorrow, November 5.

Alexandra is a seasoned finance leader and former public company CFO who knows our business, our controls, and our finance team well. The board and I have initiated a comprehensive search for a permanent CFO that will consider both internal and external candidates. I will work closely with Alexandra over the coming weeks with James' support to ensure a seamless transition. With that, I will turn it over to James.

James Kehoe: Stephanie, and good morning, everyone. It has been a privilege to serve as CFO of FIS. During what has been a transformative period for the company. But after 3 years, it is the right time to look at other opportunities outside of FIS. I am very proud of the talented finance team. Which has and will continue to deliver stellar cash flow results. And I would like to thank Alexandra for stepping into the interim role. She is a superb leader, and an experienced financial executive. I will work closely with Alexandra to ensure a seamless transition. I will continue to be a shareholder in FIS, as I believe in the long term potential of the company.

Turning now to the formal presentation. Third quarter results were broadly in line with our expectations. With a strong performance on cash flow. Revenue grew 3.7 on a pro forma basis, with banking and capital markets coming in at the higher end of our outlook. Including a positive contribution from new strategic distribution partnerships, Pro forma EBITDA grew 5.2% with margins up 94 basis points in line with our outlook of 80 to 100 basis points. And the margin expansion was led by favorable revenue mix and cost savings. With margins up across both segments. Adjusted EPS increased 6.6%. Cash flow had another strong quarter, up 8% year over year. Despite lapping a very tough comp.

You will recall that free cash flow doubled in the third quarter of last year. Year to date, we have now generated $1.9 billion of cash flow achieving 85% of our full year target. Our leverage ratio held steady at 3.5x. With our total debt declining to $20.8 billion and we returned $248 million to shareholders primarily through dividends. Turning now to our segment results, starting on Slide 13. Banking Solutions' pro forma revenue growth was 3.9%. Recurring revenue slowed to 2.4%. Reflecting lower M&A compared to the first half of the year, client-led conversion delays and the impact of select bank consolidation.

Non recurring revenue grew 22 point 8 with a strong contribution from strategic distribution partnerships offsetting a decline in traditional licenses. Adjusted EBITDA advanced 8.8% with margins expanding more than 200 basis points on a pro forma basis reflecting continued cost savings and favorable revenue mix. Turning now to capital markets on Slide 14. Revenue increased 3%. Which was at the high end of our outlook. Recurring revenue also grew 3%, lapping a very strong 9% in the prior year. Nonrecurring revenue grew 24.6%, with growth in strategic distribution partnerships offsetting a decline in traditional licenses. And professional services declined 20%, reflecting the impact of weaker first half sales and a slower than expected pace of client implementations.

We expect this pressure on professional services to continue into the fourth quarter. Lastly, margins expanded 180 basis points reflecting favorable revenue mix from partnership deals and cost savings. Turning now to Slide 15 to review our year to date results. Revenue increased 5.1%. With banking at 5.8% and capital markets at 3.1%. EBITDA margins expanded 96 basis points reflecting favorable mix and cost savings. Free cash flow is up 57% year on year. To $1.9 billion and bringing the latest 12 months to $2.3 billion. We are confident we will achieve our full year cash flow goals. Now let's turn to Slide 16 for a discussion on our updated full year outlook.

As Stephanie noted in her remarks, we have begun to see some client driven implementation delays across our larger enterprise customers, Given these changes, we are taking a more prudent approach to our outlook. Firstly, we are incorporating revised implementation timelines and accounting for some impact from select bank consolidation. And secondly, we are taking a more measured view on nonrecurring revenue. Given softer market receptivity to our licensed products. With that said, let me walk you through our updated projections. We now expect banking revenue growth of 3.5 to 4%. As compared to 5% to 5.5% previously.

This reduction is driven by a 65 basis point impact from client led implementation delays and the impact of a large bank consolidation. And an 85 basis point reduction from lower assumptions regarding nonrecurring revenue in light of shifts in client demand. Turning to capital markets. We are now forecasting revenue growth of 2% to 2.5%, as compared to 3% to 3.5% previously. This change primarily reflects lower license activity as we shift to meet market demand for cloud based modern products sold under recurring contracts. Lastly, we have reduced our revenue outlook to account for the divestiture of a noncore prepaid business. Turning now to margins.

The revenue reduction we are now forecasting for the fourth quarter will weigh on EBITDA and margins. We are reducing our assumptions for nonrecurring revenue by over $100 million impacting margins by approximately 50 basis points. We now anticipate full year margin expansion of 20 to 30 basis points. Adjusted EPS growth is reduced to 1.2% to 2.4%. Cash flow remains on track. We are reaffirming our free cash flow outlook of approximately $2.2 billion strong performance from our working capital programs and a decline in non GAAP cash expenses will offset lower earnings. Turning now to 2027 on Slide 17.

Similar to the prudent approach underpinning our updated 2026 guidance, I would like to share some preliminary perspectives on how we are thinking about 2027. And why we believe we will return to a more normalized level of growth in 2028. Organic growth is driven by transactions and account growth, net new sales and pricing. And is expected to contribute approximately 2.5 to 3.5 percentage points of growth broadly consistent with historical performance. Nonrecurring revenue will be negatively impacted by the absence of $140 million of strategic distribution partnerships, and a reduction in termination fees from elevated levels in both 2025 and 2026. Overall, this will reduce growth by 250 to 300 basis points.

Bringing the adjusted growth rate range to down 50 basis points to up 100 basis points. Importantly, we believe these nonrecurring headwinds are temporary in nature. And are expected to dissipate as we enter 2028. With that, let me walk you through our expectations by segment, starting with banking. We anticipate revenue growth of flat to 1.5%, with recurring revenue growth of approximately 3%. Largely offset by a sharp decline in nonrecurring revenue. Driven by the lapping of strategic partnership deals a return to a normalized level of termination fees, and deprioritizing certain low margin equipment businesses. For capital markets, we are anticipating a range of down 1.5% to up 0.5%, with recurring growth in the mid single digits.

As with banking, we expect nonrecurring to be a drag on revenue growth as we lap large strategic partnership deals and pivot from license to recurring. Turning now to Slide 18, Our 2027 margins will be impacted by the reduction in nonrecurring revenue. And investment in cyber and security. The reduction in nonrecurring revenue will weigh on margins, with an anticipated impact of 75 to 145 basis points. As such, we expect margins to be flat to down 100 basis points, Absent these nonrecurring impacts, core margins are expected to expand by roughly 45 to 75 basis points. We are also providing assumptions across several below the line items, including interest, and tax.

As a result, we expect adjusted EPS to decline in the high single to low double digit range. Turning to cash flow. We are confident free cash flow growth will continue to outpace earnings in 2027. Fueled by continued working capital programs and a further decline in non GAAP cash expenses. Finally, I want to emphasize 3 points before moving on. First, this is a preliminary view of 2027. Incorporating a number of prudent assumptions, Second, we believe the current outlook is not indicative of the long term revenue and earnings power of this business. We anticipate a return to more normalized growth in 2028. Third, free cash flow will continue to outpace net earnings.

Turning now to Slide 19 for a recap. While our third quarter results were in line with expectations, banking recurring growth was weaker than anticipated. We have reduced our 2026 outlook to reflect client led delays the impact of select bank M&A, and updated nonrecurring assumptions. And we have provided a preliminary view for 2027. Reflecting steady recurring growth. And progress on core margins. However, these will be offset by a significant reduction in nonrecurring revenue, as we lap strategic partnership deals and elevated termination fees. While this will temper near term financial results, we are confident in the long term durability of the business.

Free cash flow remains robust, and we are confident cash flow will continue to grow ahead of earnings. With that, Operator, could you please open the line for questions?

Operator: Yes, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star-11 on your telephone keypad. If your answer has been if your question has been answered and you wish to remove yourself from the queue, you will press star-11 again. Again, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star-11 on your telephone keypad. First question or comment comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal from Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open.

Ramsey El-Assal: Stephanie, in the context of the forward view that you provided, I appreciate all the color on the nonrecurring headwinds you are facing. You know, license fees, conversion delays, deal. Lapping, etcetera. Are you seeing any other external factors pressuring numbers, you know, competition higher. You know, need for higher levels of business investment or termination fee cadence changing over time as the industry consolidates? I am just curious if you are seeing anything that sort of, you know, if it would the market sort of and the demand environment evolving around you and any commentary on how you can address those changing conditions would be helpful.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Yeah. Thanks for the question, Ramsey. And what I would say is competition remains strong and stable. As I said in my prepared remarks, demand coming from our clients is high. it is high in terms of both, products and solutions to help grow their business. it is also high in terms of making sure that they and we can prioritize cyber and resiliency activities. So I do not see significant changes in competition. I think the competition remains steady and stable. I gave you some clear of the metrics in terms of wins. We still feel really good about where we are positioned. And, you know, how our solutions are really being seen in the marketplace and winning.

I think in terms of term fees, and we talked about this, we have seen, as you guys know, a higher level of what would call large scale bank M&A. So think about Huntington Cadence, Fifth Third, Comerica, We talk about we generally end up on the positive side of that, but that is larger than normal in 2025, 2026. I do not have anything expect. Expectations in 2027 at that size and scale. But TBD. I think in that, in terms of we do win on those over the period, but we will take some timing compression and conversion as those through. Those work through our p and l.

In terms of license in the market, I think this has been a consistent trend across the industry where, you know, clients do not want to buy on-prem license activity. As you know, we primarily have historically sold that in the capital markets and in the international part of the banking business. And with the onset of AI, really just the consumption of our subscription and SaaS products because out of those, they can also subscribe to our data products, which is what they need to actually drive their AI products forward. So, generally, I would say it is all stable. We did talk about some client directed changes.

We see that in the larger part of the customer base versus the smaller part of the customer base. And we feel really good about those are not canceled. Those are just moving time lines out. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

Tien-Tsin Huang: Hey, great. Thanks. Just wanted to clarify, if you do not mind. Just on the client delays is it related to a shift in client focus towards cyber? And some of the ramps are just getting reprioritized. Just wanna make sure I understand if those are related or if I heard it wrong. And then just on the softer demand for license, Stephanie just talked about it with the change in how clients want to consume content. How long would it take to convert these potential license deals here to the consumption model? I mean, do you have a time frame? Because we have seen this kind of movie before with shift to subscription Do you have a time frame?

In mind? Thanks.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Yeah. Thanks, Tien-Tsin. So on the client directed delay, they are in a larger part of our customer base. And I cannot say specifically they are related to cyber because it is obviously based on what is happening at each individual client. But we do see in the larger bank customer space, there is certainly a reprioritization of activities inside the banks to make sure that they and we can get through and make sure everything's as secure as possible. The good news on all of these projects is they have been re-planned. There really have not been any terminated.

And so I would say there is a mix But given that they are in the larger part of the market, from a demand standpoint versus the small, could be more cyber related. I know some other tech firms have talked about that as well. In terms of the license, I think to be fair on this, it is a good thing over time. As you know, we have been moving our business to a higher level of recurring The products in market are taking shape in terms of the demand. It will be a slow to modest change as it has been. We would not expect to see licenses continue to go up as demand shifts to subscription revenue.

And so I think as we are talking about it, we are simply saying we would not expect license to continue to increase over time. It would stay flat to moderate. But there is no initial switch where we are gonna throw the whole thing. And that is not how the business would work. So it is more of a modest change. We are just not expecting increasing license revenue as those products get reprioritized with our subscription based products.

Tien-Tsin Huang: Got it. No. That answers it well. Thank you, and all the best to you, James.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Darrin Peller from Wolfe Research. Mister Peller, your line is now open.

Darrin Peller: Alright. Thanks, guys. James, all the best to you as well. Stephanie, can we just touch on how much of the 27 guidance is really function of you deciding to formally not include or rely on nonrecurring revenue in your outlook anymore rather than just really focus on what you know in terms of recurring? And then on that note, I mean, what exactly would you say is changing in terms of on a segment by segment?

If you look at the 2-segment basis, in terms of the recurring revenue forecast, said another way, what changed in terms of demand that you believe might be slightly different in either of the 2 segments? if you could walk through what you are seeing that you incorporated in that 2027 outlook more fundamentally besides just the nonrecurring side?

Stephanie L. Ferris: Sure. Maybe I will take it, and James can add on. First, in terms of conversion timing, the client led delays we talked about are about timing. They are not about demand. Our framework does assume some of them delay into next year as the clients have pushed out their implementation dates And some of that is related to, obviously, their own projects going on. If they are completed sooner, we would expect, you know, the recurring revenue to accelerate faster than we have assumed, but it is about conversion timing.

Also, we think the nonrecurring headwind is temporary as we lap the activation of our strategic distribution partnership channel and from the term fees normalizing, So we expect that to largely dissipate in 2028 and 2020. that is why we talked about a baseline organic growth being consistent with what we are seeing in 2026. I think we are seeing we have really attempted to set a baseline that we believe is more prudent given as we come into this quarter. So I think we feel pretty good about the trends, and we were trying to be as transparent as possible with what is going on. Maybe James could add a few comments.

James Kehoe: I think it is useful just to step back to Slide 17 of the drivers in 2027. And what we said was the organic growth is a range of 2.5% to 3%, and that is pretty consistent with what was done in the past. And the massive swing factor is this 52 to 300 basis points on nonrecurring. You know, you multiply it by. Simplistically, take 3% of 13.5 billion. that is a $400 million change. So it is pretty substantial. And I will give you the 4 drivers because transparency is important here. 1 is we are lapping the strategic initiative deals So these are partnerships that will drive recurring revenue longer term. that is $140 million.

Rough numbers, $140. The second big piece, as Stephanie already referred to it, is the level of trade consolidation. In both 2025 and in 2026 is at levels that we have never seen in the past. So we are reverting to the mean of the level of trade consolidation. So assuming no large trade consolidations, and that has an impact, numbers, a $100 million year on year. So we are moving away We are reducing versus the base year to reflect a much lower level of trade consolidation. The third 1 then is within the banking business, we have had a lot of nonrecurring revenue on equipment type businesses. Which are very, very low margin.

We have taken the opportunity to exit this low margin business, that is in the region of $75 million to $100 million. So this is stuff that on its best day you are making 5% to 10% margin on. So of little consequence to any future strategy, The final piece, and it is about 50-ish kind of million as in capital markets, That is call it, the rough quantification of a progressive reduction in licenses over a longer period. But as Stephanie said, this will be managed over a 5 to 7 year time horizon. There will not be any large episodic change in the direction of capital markets license activity.

But that $50 million-type number, it is $50 million to $75 million, that will drive faster recurring revenue on an ongoing basis. And even as we exit 2027, there will be faster revenue growth. So I wanted to give you the full detail on this 400 because it truly is know, it is $300 million of purely nonrecurring. And we will emphasize this as a prudent set of estimates, which basically says you are reverting back to term fees in 2023, 2024 levels. And your egg. You will not repeat any SI deals And then you are moving capital markets away from license to recurring on a measured basis. So I will stop there. Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Dan Dolev from Mizuho. Mr. Dolev, your line is now open.

Dan Dolev: Thank you. Hi. Good morning, Stephanie. You know, there is some speculation that 1 of your peers could be growing--going private according to the press. You know, given the valuation, the stock reaction today, you know, how are you thinking about the benefits of being public versus private? Thank you.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Yeah. Thanks, Dan. Yeah. Look, I think you know that we are really focused here in terms of doing the right thing for our customers doing the right thing for our investors, And so we will always be looking at what the right what the right level there is and what the right structure is. So we are obviously always open. I think, though, what we have proven here today or what we are trying to emphasize here today is being very transparent on the evolution of this business and taking all the right decisions and making the right decisions to support safety and security and ultimately our clients' outcomes that they need.

So, we will always be focused on investor returns, and, you know, focused on clients. And, you know, we are interested to see how the industry evolves.

Operator: Thank you, Stephanie. Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of William Nance from Bank of America. Mister Nance, your line is now open.

Analyst: Yeah. Hi. Thank you, Stephanie and team, for taking the question. Was just curious if you could update the leverage discussions or post the asset swap. I think at last reading, it was 2.8 turns within 18 months of close, which put it somewhere around 2027. Towards 2028. But as we think about a flat free cash flow, outlook for 2027, I think that is somewhere around $1.3 billion or so after dividend. That would put 2.8x potentially later. And so I was just wondering if you could give more of a formal update on that part of the outlook and the sort of balance of debt paydown and resumption of future share repurchase timing Thank you.

James Kehoe: Yep. So I will take this 1. You know, you have seen the current year of cash flow performance. And I wanna reiterate the current guide is $2.2 billion which is at the midpoint. Which is $100 million above what we guided at the beginning of the year. I would say despite the pressures on EBITDA in the current year, we are significantly outperforming on free cash. And then secondly, it is up 40% year on year. Driven by the contribution from thesis, but strong working capital initiatives.

So as you look forward on cash, the good news is we have a pipeline of working capital initiatives that in 2027, 2028, and 2029 far exceed what we have delivered in 2025 and 2026. And to put it in perspective, the working capital initiatives in both of those years were in excess of $250 million. that is in 2025 and 2026. We expect the next 2 years to be of a higher level. We are moving into phase 2 of this. So I think number 1 is that when I give you on the free cash flow, it will continue. To strongly outpace net earnings, full stop. To. Because there is 2 levers.

And we are increasingly we increasingly have better visibility on them, which is 1 is working capital, which I just discussed. And the other is the reduction in onetime non GAAP expenses, wherein the current year we actually took them down aggressively versus the original guide. I think it was about $70 million, so roughly a 10% reduction. And there will be a further sizable reduction each year over the next 2 years And once you cycle through thesis, they are actually should trend to a very low level. To get back to your direct question, that being said, the pressure on EBITDA is the so we do not have an issue on free cash flow.

The pressure is on EBITDA. Because it is the most important metric when calculating the debt to EBITDA ratio. So we have an impact on the timing of getting to this 2.8x. The reason I cannot commit to a number is, 1, I am leaving, but number 2 is it is. the forecast is based on a series of prudent assumptions and there are prudent. And I really wanna emphasize, there are prudent assumptions across nonrecurring somewhat prudent on the recurring and you know, we have to see how these colors pan out in the we get into budgeting cycle. The other 1 is the positive impacts from the strategic review process.

Will go a long way depending on the outcomes, will go a long way to offsetting pressure on EBITDA. So I am not confirming the prior guide, but I am saying it is maybe not as not as bad as the math. the maths would lead you to believe. that is the way. So summarizing, EBITDA put pressure on the EBITDA sorry, on achieving the 2.8x. It will push out when you can get back to share repurchases. But there is a large potential of offset from the strategic review process. And I would say a large potential offset on free cash flow is coming in stronger every quarter The programs we set are generally over delivering.

In every quarter, quarter by quarter, day by day. So I think there is opportunities to offset some of the EBITDA pressure.

Analyst: Thanks. I really appreciate that detail. Maybe as a quick follow-up, since you mentioned the strategic review, is that still limited to select capital markets products, or is the purview of the strategic review possibly, you know, expanded or maybe it was always larger? But maybe the probabilities of something larger is has changed. Maybe it is a sort of an in between question following up on Dan's previous 1 about sort of public versus private. Dynamics broadly.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Yeah. Great question. Look. The strategic review remains ongoing. And you can see this quarter, we actually sold a business out of the banking portfolio. So while we are focused in capital markets, we. We are always focused across the entire portfolio, and are evaluating what makes sense to keep within the enterprise with a focus on deepening relationships with our FIs and expanding cross sell. And to the extent that does not make any sense, we are actively looking across not just capital markets, but obviously banking. As you can see, from the sale of the noncore prepaid business. So we will continue. As James mentioned, the strategic review continues It is across the entire company.

And we will look to give a more fulsome update when we come back to you, when we give the year end review, and we will have a better view of that.

Analyst: Appreciate it. I will I will jump back in. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question or comment comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open, sir.

Jason Kupferberg: Good morning, guys. Thanks for all the detail regarding next year. I wanted to come back to the banking segment for a second and the client led implementation delays. Can you give us a sense of how many clients we are talking about here and what types of circumstances drove the delays. And then as we think about the recurring growth outlook for banking next year, the 3% number? I know that is a little bit lower than what you have been seeing year to date in 2026. So is that 3% recurring growth for next year assume that these delayed implementations help recurring growth next year? And if so, what are the potential offsets? Yeah.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Jason. Good question. it is generally less than 10 clients. And so as I said, they have been generally larger and the implementations range where some have already restarted their implementation in the fourth quarter. Some have replanned into the end of first quarter. And some are into Q3 next year. So we do expect all of the benefits of those to come back into 2027. However, on the timing that the clients are telling us we are going to go live on, and so do not expect to get the full year. But we do still feel good about all of those, delays coming back into 2027, albeit we will have some timing impact.

Jason Kupferberg: Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. The investments the new investments in tech and security, cyber, etcetera, how do those phase in? And can you size those for us? I do not know if this is all OpEx or a little bit of CapEx too, but the numbers and timing would be great. Thank you.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Yeah. I will talk a little bit about it. Maybe James can give some views of how to think about it in terms of margin. We have been investing significantly since 2024 in terms of resiliency which cyber and resiliency really go together. And you have seen that in our investment profile, profile primarily in capital. As we refresh the hardware and the software and make sure that we are best in class in terms of cyber defense. And we will continue to do that. So we have had a pretty level of investment here going on. I think the way to think about it is it will continue as it is today.

However, it is offsetting some of the benefits of our cost programs falling through the margin. And so maybe I will have. Ask James to talk a little bit about how to think about it at a high level OpEx, CapEx, but it is not necessarily an incremental step up year over year, but ongoing and I may need to offset some of the benefits of the cost programs.

James Kehoe: Yeah. I think it is you know, if you are looking at the margin projection we gave for next year, 0 to 100 basis points. You are looking at licenses between low and high end 75 to 145 bps. And, you know, a rough estimate on cyber and security is 20 to 20 to 30 basis points. that is a rough estimate. So we are investing to ensure the highest grade of security and resiliency. The other part where you are gonna some impact is it is gonna feed through in higher depreciation. We have already, all of this year, spent considerably more on capital expenditure, and we are talking large amounts of money.

But if you look into next year, the incremental year on year on CapEx is in the region of $50 million So it is not massive number, but you are coming off a very high base here. This year already, we ramped up capital expenditure. On purchased assets to. On major refreshes and then on cyber as we exit the year. Bear in mind, the incremental CapEx next year, that is included in the cash flow projection for 2027. Thank you, guys.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Will Nance from Goldman Sachs. Mister Nance, your line is now open.

Will Nance: Hi. Thank you for taking the question. I wanna go back to, I think, Darrin's question on the recurring assumptions into next year. And looking at the 3% growth in on the banking side, understanding that is relatively consistent with where we shook out this quarter. So guess my question is, how do we assess the degree of conservatism in the organic growth outlook?

It sounds like some of the delays that are leading to lower growth right now will have some timing impacts on next year And so when we think about the kind of the baseline of organic growth next year, how much of the lower level of organic growth next year relative to kind of what you have targeted historically in the business? James from those timing impacts versus maybe a degree of prudence around the expectations into next year or an expectation that we continue to see timing push outs in 2027?

Stephanie L. Ferris: Well, I think we are gonna have to come back to you as we do detailed planning. I mean, at this point, we are giving you, you know, expectations based on what we know now. We hope that the numbers would be bigger, but at. Or grow faster. But at this point, I do not think we have that level of detail. To share. We will have to come back to you in the year end call and give you a much better view of that.

Will Nance: Okay. All right. Let me try more near term 1 here. Just on the banking performance in the quarter, the payments, revenue growth, took a step down, sequentially, a very strong quarter last quarter. is now, I think, kind of operating below the mid single digits you guys have talked about historically. So what drove that? Are they the implementation delays hitting that line in particular and just how do you kind of think about the durability of payments growth?

Stephanie L. Ferris: Yeah. So we still feel really good about payments growth generally. We did see some first half to second half changes, a little bit of client led delays But as you think about going from first half to second half, there is client led delay impacts there as well as, again, a bit of the M&A consolidation impacting there. We feel. Continue to feel really good about the payments business. And its growth trajectory. So no changes there, but higher levels, in the first half versus the second half. Because of those trends.

James Kehoe: I do not know, James, if there is anything else for the payments piece is particularly impacted because the M&A contribution that we had in the first half was mostly coming from Everlink. And we are lapping that in the second half. So that will naturally pull down the payments relative to the banking segment. And then we have 2 businesses EBT and prepaid businesses that are highly dependent on call it, government funded programs. And we have seen a fairly material reduction in the number of not the volume of transactions per person, but on the number of participants in programs like SNAP. And that has caused both the variance versus expectation.

And a pretty material slowdown if you take first half, second half. Talking north of 100 basis points. So we think that will continue because it kind of links into 2027. It will continue into the first half of 27 as will trade consolidation. But exiting 2027, it will be more positive. But, generally, the payments volumes, just if you take issuer volumes on debit and credit, performing consistently in Q3 compared to Q2 and first half. Got it. that is helpful details on payments.

Will Nance: Thanks for taking the question.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Rayna Kumar from Oppenheimer and Company. Mr. Kumar, your line is now open.

Rayna Kumar: Good morning. Thanks, for all the insights. How much of the delayed recurring revenue is contractually secured, and when will it convert? Then I will just ask my follow-up upfront. How should we think about the growth algorithm of FIS beyond 2027? Thank you.

Stephanie L. Ferris: Almost all of the delayed client conversions are contractually required, and almost all of them have already been planned in terms of the dates as they come into next year. So I think we feel good about that. On the growth algorithm of FIS, I think that the way to think about it is 80% of our revenue is recurring in nature. And while we have had some temporary softness tied to client led implementation delays, this still provides a steady foundation for future growth. With expanding margins. The market continues to be receptive to our products that are really driving recurring revenue, which is resulting in a little bit of a timing difference between license and recurring.

I would say we employ a 1-to-many business model where our clients leverage us for a fixed cost platform. Meaning we see incremental margins on all new sales. Lastly, we generate significant free cash flow that will continue to use to delever and ultimately return to shareholders. As a reminder, our year to date cash flow of $1.9 billion is up 57% and we reaffirm that full year outlook despite the lower EBITDA. We do expect free cash flow to continue to outpace earnings. And so I would say stepping back, that is kinda how I think about the thesis of FIS. I think it remains consistent with historicals and remains as we look into the future.

Operator: Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for 1 more question. Our final question will come from the line of Bryan Bergin from TD Cowen. Mr. Bergin, your line is now open.

Bryan Bergin: Hi. Good morning. Thank you. Can you comment on TSYS as far as cost and revenue synergy realization there? Is there any change for you on the targets as far as the strategy change impacting anything in TSYS? And are you assuming any of the cross sell benefit embedded in that preliminary 2027 banking outlook, And then my follow-up question will be on free cash flow. So holding that flat, next year despite the earnings hit, Can you just quantify the contribution from lower non GAAP costs versus working capital optimization? And is there anything non-sustainable, I e, timing related to benefit you there next year? Thank you.

Stephanie L. Ferris: We are not changing anything related to our expectations around synergies. And I will let James answer the free cash flow question.

James Kehoe: Yeah. On the free cash flow, if you look into next year, how we can hold it, it is roughly half-and-half split between onetime expense and working capital. But, you know, there is a lot of factors that play into the cash flow. it is the EBITDA flow-through for the license versus recurring? So many of different pieces, but we are incredibly comfortable on the ability to drive cash flow. At a much faster pace as demonstrated in the current year. Where cash flow is up 40%. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the q and a program. Thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. Parts of this article were created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool's insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.