U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced, following Tuesday’s mixed close.
Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House in the midterm elections, according to The Associated Press. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized President Donald Trump’s military campaign, while Trump told The Wall Street Journal that the Iran conflict contributed to Republican losses but said, "I did the right thing. I would have done it again."
The Associated Press also reported Democrats won 219 House seats to Republicans’ 126 and won 53 Senate seats to Republicans’ 41, with final results still pending.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.93%, and the 2-year Treasury bond yielded 4.61% at the last check. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool projections show markets pricing in a 79.2% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates after its December meeting.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 0.97% |
| S&P 500 | 0.53% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.45% |
| Russell 2000 | 1.03% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), which track the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively, were higher in premarket trading on Wednesday. The SPY was up 0.36% at $757.08, the QQQ advanced 0.24% to $686.94, and the DIA rose 0.77% to $521.02.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with information technology, communication services, and industrials leading and consumer staples, materials, and energy lagging. The Dow dropped over 100 points.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | -0.38% | 51,786.72 |
| S&P 500 | 0.36% | 7,568.92 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.83% | 25,372.01 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.23% | 2,812.45 |
Ryan Detrick’s historical data showed that a divided congressional government produces the highest average returns for the S&P 500. At the same time, a Republican president paired with a Democratic Congress has delivered the lowest historical market gains.
Detrick said, “The worst possible combination is a Republican President and a Democratic Congress,” and he pegged that setup’s average annual S&P 500 return at 4.9%.
He added, “Futures seem to agree so far.” Addressing whether the 4.9% was driven by the Global Financial Crisis, Detrick said, “It is the most likely scenario at 22 times. So it is somewhat, but some other bad years in there for sure.”
Detrick also wrote, “Good reminder that the best scenario for stocks is a split Congress,” and said, “A Democrat controlled Congress is the worst scenario historically,” citing a 15.1% average annual return for a split Congress and a 6.7% average for a Democrat-controlled Congress.
Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on Wednesday.
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.46% to hover around $96.53 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.43% to hover around $104.05 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 2.76% to hover around $4,046.69 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.38% lower at the 101.3400 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 1.27% higher at $78,320 per coin, over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday, as Australia’s ASX 200 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 indices fell. India’s Nifty 50, South Korea’s Kospi, China’s CSI 300, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices rose. European markets were higher in early trading.
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