Spire (SR) Files Missouri Rate Case, Is The Stock Fully Priced?

Spire (SR) has asked Missouri regulators to approve higher natural gas rates, linking the request to ongoing spending on system safety, reliability, and customer service across its core utility footprint.

Spire shares trade at US$88.01 after a brief 1-day pullback of about 1%. However, the 30-day share price return of 13.5% and 90-day gain of 8.95% point to building momentum that sits on top of a 3-year total shareholder return of 73.27%.

Scan how investors are pricing similar regulated utilities by reviewing the hand picked 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores, which share a focus on stability, infrastructure spending, and resilient cash flows.

Bulls point to Spire’s regulated footprint, Missouri rate case, and recent share momentum as support for a higher valuation. Bears see a fully priced utility after a strong run. Which side do the current numbers lean toward?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.7% Undervalued

Against Spire’s last close at $88.01, the widely followed narrative anchors fair value at $91.40 using a 7.75% discount rate. This leaves a modest valuation gap that hinges on execution of its regulated capital plan and regulatory support across key states.

The acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee, which added about 200,000 customers and US$1.6b of rate base funded without common equity, can give Spire more regulated revenue and wider earnings contribution once new customer and infrastructure investments are fully reflected in rates and margins.

See why 1 investors see Spire as 4% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $91.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the Spire narrative meets real pressure if regulators push back on rate recovery or if decarbonization policies steadily erode long term gas demand.

Find out about the key risks to this Spire narrative.

Another View: Spire Looks Full on Earnings

The first narrative pegs Spire at a small 3.7% discount to fair value, yet the earnings multiple tells a tighter story. The shares trade on a P/E of 19.4x, compared with a fair ratio of 18.7x, the global Gas Utilities average of 12.8x, and peer average of 13.9x. That points to a premium that leaves less margin for error if the Missouri rate case or long term gas demand assumptions fall short. Which signal do you put more weight on: the small implied upside, or the richer earnings tag?

To see how the numbers stack up when valuation leans on earnings rather than discounted cash flows, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Mixed views on Spire so far. If you want to move quickly and decide where you land on the risk and reward balance, start with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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