AlphaValue/Baader Europe Adjusts Forecasts for Eni on Price Deck Changes

01:53 AM EST, 11/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe revised its earnings estimates for Eni (ENI.MI) after the research firm updated its commodity price deck. "We raise Brent to USD 96.5/bbl in 2026 from USD 91.5/bbl, to USD 84/bbl in 2027 from USD 78/bbl, and to USD 69/bbl in 2028 from USD 65/bbl. European gas rises to EUR 58/MWh in 2026 and EUR 63/MWh in 2027, from EUR 57/MWh and EUR 53/MWh. Higher volumes amplify the price effect: underlying production growth is guided at 6-7% in 2026, driven by ramp-ups in Congo and Mexico and by the full contribution of Searah. The equity-accounted satellites (Searah, Vår Energi, Azule) now carry a growing share of E&P earnings, and their contribution enters below EBIT. The tax rate is also pulled down (guided at 36-37% for 2026)," according to a Tuesday note. Analysts also adopted a "more bullish" stance on refining, upgrading their full-year 2026 and 2027 margin projections to $18 per barrel and $15/bbl, respectively, from $14/bbl and $11/bbl. The research firm expects "strong" margins until mid-2027, followed by a gradual easing to $8.5/bbl in 2028. The research firm's adjusted net income forecasts were also lifted, while its EPS estimates were revised upward by 20.3% to 3.05 euros for 2026 and by 12.8% to 2.72 euros for 2027. AlphaValue/Baader Europe rates the stock at sell, with a price target of 23.9 euros.