RBC Sees BHP Group's Copper South Australia as Key Growth Driver; Estimates Revised

01:24 AM EST, 11/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets highlighted Copper South Australia as the primary catalyst for driving BHP Group's (BHP.L, BHG.JO) copper production growth target by 2035. "BHP is targeting a ~45% increase in copper production to ~2Mt by FY35 (5% CAGR) and Copper South Australia is potentially the largest contributor adding ~200 ktpa," the research firm said Tuesday ahead of a site visit scheduled for Nov. 23 to 24. "We estimate Copper SA Phase 1 ($11.6bn capex, RBCe) is value accretive assuming long-term copper >$5.20/lb vs consensus of $6.00/lb (RBCe $5.00/lb). We now forecast Copper SA produces 503kt in FY35 vs 376kt prior and consensus of 400kt." Even with the anticipated $11.6 billion phase 1 capital expenditure, analysts project Copper South Australia will generate positive free cash flow annually under both spot market conditions and RBC's price assumptions. The research firm also believes consensus estimates for Olympic Dam are likely to be revised upward after the upcoming site visit. On the earnings front, RBC trimmed its adjusted diluted EPS and adjusted EBITDA projections for the mining giant's fiscal 2027 and 2028. The stock's sector perform rating and price target of AU$60 were also maintained by the research firm.