Highlights of the morning brokerage meeting | In November, equity was mainly about recovering from shocks, and the market confirmed that capital return is still needed

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the last trading day (November 3), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.82% to 3608.10 points, the Shenzhen Securities Index fell 1.21% to 10876.99 points, and the GEM index fell 2.73% to 2391.65 points; the turnover of the two markets was 1703.437 billion yuan; it rose and stopped by 48 companies and 17.

Cathay Pacific Haitong believes that equity in November was mainly due to the recovery of shocks; Huayuan Research believes that the core AI conflict is the time difference between capital expenditure expansion and return fulfillment, and the October PMI returned to the boom and bust line; Zhongtai Securities believes that the implementation of the PTFE plan will drive the release of demand for spherical silicon powder, hydrocarbon resin, and PTFE resin; China Investment Securities believes that the decline in sales of the top 100 housing enterprises is expected to narrow further under the incremental policy.

Cathay Pacific Haitong: General trend | Based on stability, waiting for restoration

Looking ahead to November, the equity market is expected to mainly recover from shocks. The inflow of broad-based ETFs can cushion systemic risks, but confirmation at the bottom of the market still requires that the leading sector in the previous period stop falling, endogenous sell-off pressure weakens, and capital return. The bank believes that industry trends in the technology sector are still ongoing, but high congestion, high valuations, and overseas interest rate restrictions have yet to be fully digested, and the systemic rise in the sector still needs to wait for four types of catalysts: one is the renewal of capital expenditure support for overseas cloud vendors, and free cash flow and capital return expectations stabilize; second, domestic companies' profit expectations for the fourth quarter and 2027 are improving or order trends are improving; third, there have been new breakthroughs on the AI application side; fourth, the technology sector's position congestion and transaction share have stabilized further, and overseas interest rates are no longer rising.

Huayuan Research: Macro|Profit Realization Concerns Combined with Weakening Domestic Demand

US stocks were clearly under pressure this week, and the NASDAQ fell for the third week in a row. The decline was greater than that of the traditional value sector. This week's earnings reports from tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon became the focus of market attention. Although AI-related businesses continued to grow, continued expansion of capital expenditure raised market concerns about the return on investment cycle and free cash flow. The bank believes that the core contradiction in the current AI industry chain is not weakening demand, but rather that there is a time gap between capital expenditure expansion and the fulfillment of commercial returns. What is most noteworthy in China this week is that the October PMI data released on October 31 has returned below the boom and dry line. It is expected that the short-term market will still revolve around the realisation of AI profits and the restoration of domestic demand. For the AI industry chain, the focus is on the liquidity environment after the three quarterly reports have basically ended; for overseas assets, the fall in US bond yields does not necessarily mean an improvement in risk appetite; for domestic assets, the high-end manufacturing and technology industry chains still have structural advantages, but traditional procyclical sectors can also be included in the direction of strategic allocation.

Zhongtai Securities: Building Materials & New Materials|PTFE Solution Analysis

In the 448G era, medium loss dominates, and PTFE materials have entered the industrial field of vision. The AI cluster interconnection was upgraded along 56g-112g-224g-448Gbps. The PAM-4 Nyquist frequency exceeded the effective bandwidth at 448Gbps, and the industry gradually switched to PAM-6/PAM-8, and the link loss budget was further compressed; after the frequency broke through 56GHz, the growth rate of medium loss was faster than conductor loss, becoming the main source of total loss. PTFE has a DK of about 2.1-2.2 and a Df of less than 0.0004 at 10GHz, leading the generation over M9 (Df about 0.0009). Nvidia has promoted the certification and application of PTFE copper-clad plates since GTC 2025. However, PTFE has shortcomings such as high thermal expansion coefficient, average thermal conductivity, soft texture, poor interface adhesion, and difficult molding processing, so its industrial application depends on collaborative breakthroughs in material modification and manufacturing processes.

If the PTFE solution is implemented, it will drive demand for spherical silicon powder, hydrocarbon resins, and PTFE resins. The PTFE solution is expected to be first used in the Rubin Ultra NVL576 switch tray. The bank combined industry research to measure demand and market space for PTFE resins, hydrocarbon resins, and chemical spherical silicon powder separately. According to the calculation results, the demand for PTFE resin for every 10,000 NVL576 units is about 1,152 tons, corresponding to a market space of about 170 million yuan; the demand for hydrocarbon resin is about 864 tons, corresponding to a market space of about 2.16 billion yuan; and the demand for chemical spherical silicon powder is about 3040 tons, corresponding to a market space of about 1.22 billion yuan. It is worth noting that hydrocarbon resin has not been replaced by PTFE resin, but is a key supporting material for the engineering implementation of the PTFE route, which provides some rigidity when used in the PP layer.

SDIC Securities: Real Estate | Top 100 Sales Decline Narrows

The year-on-year decline in total sales and total land acquisition of the top 100 real estate companies all narrowed from January to October. According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, the total sales volume of the top 100 housing enterprises from January to October 2026 was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.9 percentage points; in January-October, there were 6 100 billion housing enterprises, a year-on-year decrease of 1; 10 billion housing enterprises decreased by 4 to 58 compared to the same period last year, and the scale of the 100 billion and 10 billion housing enterprise hierarchies continued to shrink. At the land acquisition level, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 housing enterprises was 646.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. The decline was 3 percentage points narrower than in January-September. Land acquisition by leading housing companies, China Resources Land and Binjiang Group increased year-on-year. The bank believes that under the intensive incremental policy, high-quality projects in core cities are popular, forming a certain amount of market support. Combined with real estate companies' performance sprint expectations at the end of the year, the decline in sales is expected to narrow further.