What eBay Doubters Got Wrong

If you only glanced at the headlines this year, the story around eBay might seem to be all about GameStop’s unsolicited bid, regulatory probes, and a costly push into Depop and live shopping. For eBay shareholders, the return over the past year was 48.0%, including dividends. If you had been weighing the bullish AI and recommerce pitch against the bearish disruption worries back in November 2025, what exactly were you betting on?

On Simply Wall St, a Narrative is an investor's thesis written down: the reasoning, plus the numbers it rests on. Run those numbers and you get an estimated Fair Value.

If the move has made eBay harder to judge, start where the gap is still open and scan 34 high quality undervalued stocks.

The Two eBay Stories Investors Were Arguing Over

The shares cost US$81.22 at the start of the period, and anyone buying eBay then had to pick a side in a genuine debate.

The bullish narrative put fair value at US$88.07, or 8% above the start price. It leaned on a 5.4% revenue growth assumption plus a future P/E of 19.6x supported by AI tools and higher take rates in focus categories.

The bearish view pinned fair value at US$50, or 38% below the start price. It focused on concerns that logistics gaps and stronger integrated ecosystems could pull users away and pressure margins over time.

What The Evidence Around eBay Actually Tested

eBay spent 2026 leaning into the bullish story. Depop closed for US$1.4b and live shopping GMV was reported at many times the prior year, while Q1 and Q2 results showed higher revenue and GMV along with raised guidance. Against that, Q3 2026 numbers showed revenue at US$3,206m but net income at US$501m and margin down to 15.6%. The evidence cut both ways.

The real hinge here was profitability on growth investments rather than GMV headlines. When you test a similar pitch elsewhere, track whether higher sales come with a stable or improving net margin, not just top-line progress.

What Today's eBay Price Already Assumes

With eBay now at US$121, this Narrative’s Fair Value sits below the current price, so it treats the recent 48.0% gain as more than fully reflecting its thesis.

The focus is not whether AI tools, Depop and recommerce work, but whether they work without eroding profitability. A buyer today is effectively assuming growth stays solid while margin pressure from Depop, shipping protections and incentives remains contained.

"The main thing that has to go right is that eBay converts strong momentum in focus categories, AI driven listing and ad tools, live commerce, vehicles and shipping into sustained, profitable GMV and revenue growth, without further meaningful margin drag from Depop and buyer protections."

That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the lower Fair Value this Narrative argues for

How Could You Get There Earlier?

What if your next investment idea came before the headlines? Go straight to the companies whose prices and our estimates still disagree. Three places to start, with the names waiting behind the link.

• Company 1 - 37% below our estimate - converts a growing subsea project pipeline into longer-term, higher-margin services contracts.
• Company 2 - 36% below our estimate - targets accelerating AI data centre buildouts dependent on its integrated GPU hardware and software stack.
• Company 3 - 30% below our estimate - ties subscription software to AI powered cloud infrastructure via hybrid seat and usage-based pricing.

That is three of the list. See every one of the 24 solid balance sheet companies →

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