Investors Are Asking the Wrong Question About Anthropic

The Anthropic S-1 filing released on Oct. 26 held a wealth of information, and its updated filing on Nov. 2 provided even more recent data. In the first nine months of 2026, the artificial intelligence (AI) start-up generated $33.2 billion in revenue, up from the $2.5 billion recorded in the prior-year period. It's also well funded, with cash and cash equivalents of $95.6 billion as of Sept. 30.

We also learned that losses are accelerating:

• Net loss 2023: $1.5 billion
• Net loss 2024: $8.3 billion
• Net loss 2025: $41.9 billion
• Net loss 2026: $104 billion (first 9 months)

With that fresh round of information, Wall Street is fixated on whether Anthropic's valuation, expected to range from $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, is justified.

For long-term investors looking at the initial public offering (IPO) for its potential to create future meaningful wealth, the biggest concern isn't investing in a company with a perfect valuation. Instead, the question to answer is: "Will Anthropic become a more valuable company in the future because the AI market and use cases have significantly increased in size?"

What Anthropic's data says

Since Anthropic's rival, OpenAI, launched ChatGPT in November 2022, it feels as if AI is everywhere. It has been a boon for companies like Nvidia, which supply the chips needed to make the breakthrough technology run efficiently. That said, it's still mostly in its early stages of adoption.

In October 2026, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that 24.6% of U.S. businesses used AI, up from 3.7% in September 2023, according to research from The Motley Fool. While that percentage is up from September 2023, it means approximately 75% of U.S. businesses still aren't using it.

Breaking it down further, there is much higher usage across sectors: 46% of U.S. companies in the information sector, 44% in professional services, and 41% in finance currently use AI. Still, even within sectors with early adopters and more straightforward use cases, AI usage hasn't cracked the 50% barrier.

Also, between 42% and 63% of non-adopters, with the percentages varying by business size, cited AI as not applying to their company. That's an indication that the perceived use cases are just not there yet to add it to an everyday workflow.

What to consider before the Anthropic IPO day

For Anthropic, the bull case is that the adoption trend continues and the market size keeps growing, opening up new revenue opportunities. According to Statista, the global AI market is valued at $707.4 billion in 2026 and is expected to climb to $1.9 trillion by 2032. The bull case also involves the pure-play AI company expanding its products and offerings, winning over businesses that currently feel using the technology isn't relevant to their operations.

The bear case is that the AI market will grow slowly, or not much more from here, making it more difficult for Anthropic to bring in new customers, and it just keeps burning cash. In its S-1 filing, the AI start-up shared that its top five customers accounted for 25% of its revenue for the first nine months of 2026. To have real longevity, AI adoption will need to expand beyond a few early adopters.

That's why focusing on the expected future size of the AI market, what can go right, and what can go wrong, is more valuable for anyone considering investing in Anthropic than its valuation today.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.