KeyCorp Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

KeyCorp (KEY), headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association. Valued at $22.9 billion by market cap, the company provides retail and commercial banking, commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance, and investment banking products and services.

Shares of this leading regional bank have outperformed the broader market over the past year. KEY has gained 22.2% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 10.3%. However, in 2026, KEY stock is up 4.1%, compared to the SPX’s 10.2% rise on a YTD basis.

Narrowing the focus, KEY’s underperformance is apparent compared to the iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (IAT). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 22.9% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 10.4% gains on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s single-digit returns over the same time frame.

KeyCorp's positive performance was driven by strong deposit growth, broad-based commercial lending, and improved asset quality. Key highlights include a $3.6 billion increase in average total deposits, a 5% sequential rise in C&I loans, and a 27% jump in investment banking fees. Looking ahead, management expects net interest margin expansion through fixed-asset repricing and continued AI integration, while remaining cautious of interest rate and geopolitical uncertainties.

On Oct. 20, KEY shares closed up more than 4% after reporting its Q3 results. Its revenue stood at $2 billion, up 8.4% year over year. The company’s adjusted EPS came in at $0.51, up 24.4% from the year-ago quarter.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect KEY’s EPS to grow 25.3% to $1.88 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.

Among the 21 analysts covering KEY stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” and 10 “Holds.”

The configuration has been relatively stable over the past three months. 

On Oct. 30, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) kept a “Neutral” rating on KEY and raised the price target to $23.50, implying a potential upside of 9.4% from current levels.

The mean price target of $24.05 represents an 11.9% premium to KEY’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $27 suggests an upside potential of 25.6%.

On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.