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    Simon Property Group (SPG) Could Be 3% Below Fair Value Before Earnings

    Simply Wall St·11/03/2026 07:28:57
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    Why Simon Property Group Is Back in Focus Ahead of Earnings

    Simon Property Group (SPG) is back on investor screens as the landlord prepares to report Q3 results, with earnings projected at $3.32 per share on expected revenue of $1.73 billion.

    Recent trading has tilted positive for Simon Property Group, with the share price up 4.25% over the past week and delivering a 10.34% 1 month share price return, even though the 90 day share price return is down 1.85% and momentum has only picked up again more recently.

    For investors zooming out, the stock has posted a 20.53% year to date share price return, while total shareholder return reached 31.32% over one year and 119.39% over three years. This points to a story shaped more by sustained income and reinvested distributions than short term moves.

    Scan for other real estate and income-focused opportunities that show similar momentum to Simon Property Group by running our hand picked 34 high quality undervalued stocks alongside your SPG watchlist.

    Simon Property Group now trades only slightly below analyst targets, yet carries a much deeper implied discount to fair value. Is that a genuine margin of safety, or is the market flagging risks you should price in?

    Most Popular Narrative: 3% Undervalued

    Simon Property Group last closed at $221.73, compared with a widely followed fair value narrative of $229 that applies a 7.87% discount rate to its future cash flows. This leaves a small valuation gap that hinges on how much faith you place in its redevelopment and data driven income story.

    Ongoing redevelopment and mixed-use projects, including about US$1.07b of developments under way at blended 9% yields, more than US$600 million of projects expected to start in the second half of 2026 and a longer term pipeline above US$4b funded largely from internal cash flow after dividends, provide a path for higher net operating income and earnings over time.

    See why 61 investors see Simon Property Group as 3% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $229 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the Simon Property Group narrative can be knocked off course if higher interest costs squeeze funds from operations more than expected, or if redevelopment projects miss leasing and return targets.

    Find out about the key risks to this Simon Property Group narrative.

    Next Steps

    If this mix of optimism and concern around Simon Property Group feels familiar, do not leave the judgment solely to consensus views. You can review the full breakdown of risks that investors are watching, along with the potential rewards that keep interest high, by checking the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

    Looking For More Ideas Beyond Simon Property Group?

    Do not stop your research at Simon Property Group. Broaden your opportunity set by scanning other stocks that fit clear income, value, and resilience filters.