Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are leaning slightly lower early Tuesday as Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections and Wall Street parses mixed signals regarding a potential ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are leaning bearish for the Nov. 3 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 3?” contract currently reflects a 45% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing negative index futures against volatile energy markets and a tech-heavy corporate earnings slate:

• Negative Index Futures: Equity futures are tracking modestly lower across all major benchmarks. Dow Jones futures fell 0.41%. The S&P 500 futures slipped 0.17%, Russell 2000 futures dropped 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked down 0.04%.

• Geopolitics & Oil Volatility: President Donald Trump noted that oil prices were “dropping like a rock” amid hopes for a settlement with Iran. However, initial crude price plunges of over 7% reversed slightly after reports emerged that U.S. forces struck targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude climbed 0.58% to $97.02 a barrel, while Brent crude advanced 0.45% to $105.24 a barrel.

• Earnings & Eco Data: Tuesday’s corporate calendar features highly anticipated results from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN), Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE:ANET), Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP), and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE). On the economic front, September’s JOLTS job openings and factory orders data will both be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Market analyst David Morrison of Trade Nation notes that despite recent tech-sector turbulence, third-quarter corporate fundamentals remain remarkably strong. Morrison highlighted data from FactSet showing that of the 60% of S&P 500 constituents that have reported, 82% produced a positive earnings surprise and 70% beat revenue expectations, resulting in a blended earnings growth rate over 30% year-over-year.

Morrison also pointed to the U.S. midterm elections concluding tonight. While financial markets historically look past political transitions, Morrison cautioned that a Democratic win could potentially boost opposition to the ongoing massive data center build-out and disrupt crypto regulation timelines.

However, with robust earnings growth acting as a backstop, “buy the dip” investors remain active ahead of major tech catalysts, including the highly anticipated Anthropic IPO.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Nov. 2 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $67,709 in total trading volume.

On Monday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. SPY fell 0.48% to $752.10, while QQQ declined 1.36% to $681.09. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.43% higher at $519.34.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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