AI financing may reach $10 trillion in five years: PIMCO warns of “excessive” risk, Blackstone is optimistic about productivity dividends

Zhitong Finance App learned that at the 2026 Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit held in Hong Kong, China on Tuesday, Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) CEO Emmanuel Roman and Blackstone Group President Jon Gray expressed very different views on financing and risk in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Roman warned that the scale of AI financing would eventually reach excessive levels and cause the market to collapse; while Gray said that current doubts are healthy and underestimating AI productivity is a mistake.

Roman estimates that in order to fund the AI industry's capital expenditure, the next five years could generate around $2 trillion in financing requirements each year. By comparison, the size of the US bond market is around $12 trillion. He said that AI-related financing may grow to about 10 trillion US dollars within the next five years, and this amount “will eventually become too much.”

“At some point, there will be a downturn in the market, and then everything will collapse,” Roman said at the summit. He added that the cause of the slump could be anything, including rising US interest rates, the Middle East war, and even the Eurozone crisis.

When asked whether excessive caution or taking too much risk is a bigger mistake in the current asset portfolio structure, Roman said that taking too much risk is a greater danger.

Compared to Roman, Jon Gray's tone is more optimistic. “Some of the current doubts may be healthy,” he said. But at the same time, he added that broader AI trends point to more investment and a significant increase in demand for capital.

“What's happening is very powerful. I think it's a mistake to underestimate the upcoming productivity growth and consumer and business changes.” Gray display.