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New area to watch designated as historically quiet Atlantic hurricane season nears its end
THE TAKEAWAY
As we approach the end of hurricane season, the National Weather Service designated a new area to watch in the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.
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The area is associated with an old, stalled front expected to linger across parts of the Bahamas through the beginning of the week. The boundary could potentially develop subtropical characteristics and produce an area of low pressure.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, there is a 30% chance of development over the next seven days, and the system currently poses no threat to land.
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Another area worth keeping an eye on is the western Caribbean, where long-range forecasts have hinted at the possibility of tropical development in early November.
Typically, attention shifts toward the western Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic in November, as these areas are historically among the most favorable locations for late-season tropical development.
If something does develop, the potential setup involves an upper-level trough, or dip in the jet stream, positioned west of the Caribbean.
This could help build an area of high pressure over the Caribbean, creating conditions that may allow a tropical low to form beneath it. The same upper-level feature could also help pull tropical moisture northward into the Caribbean from the south.
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However, several factors could make tropical development difficult. Strong upper-level winds and dry air continue to create unfavorable conditions for tropical activity, with El Niño also expected to play a significant role in suppressing Atlantic development.
"This remains a very low-probability scenario, with any potential development still at least 7 to 10 days away," the FOX Forecast Center said. "Nothing has been identified or highlighted by the National Hurricane Center, and there is no organized system to track at this time."
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For now, the western Caribbean remains an area to monitor as forecasts evolve in the coming days. Any potential development will have to contend with the harsh environmental impacts of El Niño.
El Niño is typically associated with reduced tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin and increased storm activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins.
This climate pattern has been a major contributing factor to the below-average level of tropical activity in the Atlantic this year.
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November marks the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, when tropical activity typically drops off sharply. The southwestern Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic generally become the primary areas to watch for any late-season development.
Overall, this has been a historically quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with just 10 named storms, including one major hurricane. That is well below the 30-year averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.