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National Medical Care Company (TADAWUL:4005) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
It's been a pretty great week for National Medical Care Company (TADAWUL:4005) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to ر.س101 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit ر.س472m. Statutory earnings fell 2.5% short of analyst forecasts, reaching ر.س1.95 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering National Medical Care are now predicting revenues of ر.س1.84b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 11% to ر.س7.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ر.س1.83b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س7.52 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for National Medical Care
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at ر.س133. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values National Medical Care at ر.س162 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ر.س110. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await National Medical Care shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that National Medical Care's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that National Medical Care is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that National Medical Care's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for National Medical Care going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for National Medical Care that we have uncovered.
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