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Analysts Are Upgrading Indian Oil Corporation Limited (NSE:IOC) After Its Latest Results
It's been a good week for Indian Oil Corporation Limited (NSE:IOC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.9% to ₹135. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of ₹2.5t and statutory earnings per share of ₹30.57. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Indian Oil are now predicting revenues of ₹10t in 2027. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 55% to ₹15.51 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹9.73t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹11.18 in 2027. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Indian Oil's future following the latest results, with a sizeable expansion in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
View our latest analysis for Indian Oil
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of ₹159, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Indian Oil, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹230 and the most bearish at ₹105 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Indian Oil's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Indian Oil to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Indian Oil's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Indian Oil going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Indian Oil (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.
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