Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Edge Higher On Hot Inflation And RBA Call

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Monday, 2 Nov 2026

Australian shares look set for a cautiously positive open, with SPI futures edging higher. The single focus is inflation. A firm October Melbourne Institute gauge keeps the Reserve Bank in play and colours every pre-market conversation.

The Monthly Inflation Gauge rose 0.5% in October 2026, pointing to persistent price pressure just one day before the RBA decision. Markets see this as reinforcing expectations around a move from the current 4.6% cash rate.

Stronger inflation signals usually feed directly into higher borrowing costs, which can pressure interest-sensitive areas and tighten household budgets. At the same time, a firmer rate outlook can support the currency, which often affects exporters’ pricing and offshore earnings translation.

The unresolved issue is simple: does the RBA put more weight on that 0.5% inflation reading or on softer signals from manufacturing and housing approvals? Tomorrow’s rate call and statement will show which side of that trade the Board prioritises.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

BHP Group (BHP)

Legal hurdles around the Resolution Copper project in Arizona have eased after the Ninth Circuit declined to rehear a challenge to the federal land transfer. Resolution Copper, a joint venture with Rio Tinto, is described as large enough to supply about 25% of US copper demand. Investors are watching the next steps on permitting and development timelines.

Across the sector, BHP has also dealt with missed quarterly copper output after a fatal accident and severe weather, and it recently avoided a supervisors' strike at the Escondida operation in Chile. These production and labour updates feed into how reliably BHP can meet customer contracts in a volatile mining backdrop.

Dicker Data (DDR)

Dicker Data has closed the purchase of 100% of Sektor Group, funded through an extension of existing debt facilities. Sektor generated NZ$440 million in gross revenue and NZ$22.7 million in unaudited normalised pre AASB16 EBITDA in the 12 months to 31 August 2026. Management is targeting an annualised EBITDA contribution of NZ$28 million to NZ$32 million once Sektor is fully integrated.

The deal is described as earnings accretive for the 2026 financial year and broadens Dicker Data into new product areas such as point of sale and enterprise mobility, along with markets including Thailand and Malaysia. Readers can focus on how integration costs and extra leverage show up in cash flow and margins over the next few reporting periods.

Iluka Resources (ILU)

Iluka Resources has given a detailed progress update on its Eneabba rare earths refinery in Western Australia. Construction is 65% complete with A$1,237 million spent out of an estimated A$1.7b to A$1.8b budget. Planned output is 23,000 tonnes per year of rare earth oxides, including 5,500 tonnes of NdPr oxide and 750 tonnes of DyTb oxide.

The company outlines expected annual revenue of about A$790 million to A$820 million from the initial concentrate blend and operating costs of roughly A$195 million to A$205 million. Commissioning is underway, with first production targeted in 2027 and a ramp through 2028. An initial offtake contract with a global car maker, worth minimum US$155 million over four years from 2028, gives early price and volume visibility for part of that output.

Top Movers

• 4DMedical (ASX:4DX) jumped 6.56% after investors digested AGM outcomes and the rejected amendment to the constitution.
• Reece (ASX:REH) climbed 5.97% as traders responded to full year results and commentary from last week’s AGM.
• Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) gained 5.34% following recent funding progress and fresh broker coverage on the Etango Uranium Project.

Top Losers

• Turaco Gold (ASX:TCG) fell 9.80% after investors reacted to recent follow on equity offerings and associated capital raising terms.
• Helia Group (ASX:HLI) fell 7.93%.
• Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) fell 7.40% amid weaker Materials sector sentiment and higher volumes across Australian mining stocks.

On The Radar

Australian trading over the next few sessions revolves around the RBA’s rate call, big bank earnings and fresh reads on exports and household confidence.

• RBA Interest Rate Decision, Tue 3 Nov. Markets are watching for a move from the current 4.6% cash rate toward the 4.85% consensus. A shift of that size would tighten borrowing costs further and keep pressure on rate sensitive sectors and the Australian dollar.
• Westpac Banking, Mon 2 Nov. Fiscal 2026 final results arrive in the context of current inflation trends and RBA settings. Loan margins and bad debt charges will offer a clearer view of how higher rates are flowing through to Australia’s housing and credit cycle.
• National Australia Bank, Thu 5 Nov. Full year 2026 numbers for NAB are due just after the RBA meeting. Guidance on lending volumes and deposit pricing will help frame how another rate move may affect bank profitability.
• REA Group, Thu 5 Nov. Q1 2027 earnings for the online real estate platform will indicate how listing volumes and advertising are holding up, with the latest data showing private house approvals fell 5.3% in September and dwelling approvals rose 5.1%.
• Australia Balance of Trade, Thu 5 Nov. Economists expect the trade surplus to widen from A$0.495b to a consensus A$1.2b. A result much lower than that would point to softer export income for resource and agriculture producers.

Sector & Industry Watch

Banks RBA decision meets housing slowdown

Banks have crept higher over the past week and month, while the 7 day data still shows modest gains rather than a surge. Updates from Westpac, ANZ and NAB point to a mix of steady profits and a clear housing downturn as private house approvals fell 5.3% in September.

If you rely on bank dividends or hold hybrids, tomorrow’s RBA call is the key swing factor. Any change from the current 4.6% cash rate, together with comments on arrears and household stress, will help explain how boards think about future payout levels and capital buffers.

Real Estate Rate pressure tests recent rebound

Real Estate has put together a strong 7 day and 30 day run, even though the past year and year to date returns remain in decline. A 3.4% weekly gain sits alongside softer 12 month numbers, which indicates this is still a recovery trade rather than an all clear for property.

If you own REITs for income, higher borrowing costs are the simple risk. Tomorrow’s RBA decision and rate statement will feed directly into interest bills for landlords, which in turn shapes how reliable current distribution levels look over the next few reporting periods.

Materials and Metals and Mining Short term lift, sector stress lingers

Materials and Metals and Mining have moved higher over the past week after a tough month, with 7 day returns above 4% for these groups. Company headlines are busy, from BHP’s copper project progress in Arizona to gold and rare earth updates, yet global data still shows the top 50 miners losing a large share of market value since February.

For portfolios with heavy mining exposure, export demand is still the heartbeat. Thursday’s Australia trade figures will show how iron ore, copper and gold shipments are tracking, which helps explain whether this latest bounce in the sector has fundamental support or is mainly a sentiment recovery.

Consumer Discretionary Higher repayments squeeze non essential spending

Consumer Discretionary has slipped over the past week after a firmer month and remains clearly weaker over 1 year and year to date. Higher mortgage repayments together with a 0.5% October inflation gauge print mean less leftover cash for travel, fashion and leisure buys.

If you hold retailers or travel stocks, the focus now is any commentary on basket sizes, discounting and foot traffic. Watch trading updates after tomorrow’s RBA decision, since even a small move in the cash rate can show up quickly in household budgets and store level numbers.

Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals & Biotech Stock specific wins support slow repair

Healthcare has edged higher over the past month after a softer year, while Pharmaceuticals & Biotech show stronger recent gains helped by news flow. Neuren’s new US FDA Orphan Drug Designation and revenue milestones from groups like Orthocell have drawn attention back to individual pipelines rather than sector wide weakness.

For investors in this area, company events matter more than macro data. The key things to watch are quarterly results and clinical updates that spell out cash usage, trial timing and early sales trends, since these often move share prices far more than the RBA decision or inflation releases.

Where Are The Opportunities Now?

With the RBA decision set to follow a 0.5% October inflation gauge and a 4.6% cash rate, income focused investors can stress test their holdings against this list of 4 dividend fortresses

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