HOYA Corporation Just Recorded A 17% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders might have noticed that HOYA Corporation (TSE:7741) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.1% to JP¥24,775 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥516b were in line with what the analysts predicted, HOYA surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥408 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on HOYA after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for HOYA from 18 analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.05t in 2027. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥830, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.05t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥831 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for HOYA

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥30,544, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HOYA at JP¥40,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥23,100. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of HOYA'shistorical trends, as the 8.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 is roughly in line with the 9.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.7% annually. So although HOYA is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥30,544, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on HOYA. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple HOYA analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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