Lyon: Macau's gambling revenue fell 10% year on year in October, in line with expectations Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is still the first choice

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Lyon released a research report saying that Macau's gambling revenue in October fell 10% year on year to MOP 21.7 billion, in line with market expectations (market expectations continued to decline during October); the bank maintained Galaxy Entertainment (00027) as the first choice for the Macau gaming sector.

According to the report, the above figures mean that Macau's average daily gambling revenue from October 26 to 31 was 675 million patacas, 4% lower than the daily average of 706 million patacas from October 1 to 25. The bank believes that compared to the previous year, the VIP room win rate returned to normal in 2026, which partly explains the decline in gambling revenue in October because channel checks showed that the Macau VIP room win rate was higher than normal in October 2025. The average daily gambling revenue in October was MOP 700 million, up from MOP 602 million in September. Gambling revenue in the first ten months of this year fell 2% year on year to MOP 208.8 billion, equivalent to 85% of the same period in 2019.

The bank expects gambling revenue to fall 2% year on year to 20.8 billion patacas in November, averaging about MOP 692 million per day, 2 percentage points higher than market expectations of 4% year-on-year decline. The current price of Macau's gaming sector is equivalent to about 8.2 times the EV/EBITDA forecast for 2027.