Results: KION GROUP AG Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

As you might know, KION GROUP AG (ETR:KGX) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. Revenues were €2.8b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of €0.76 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering KION GROUP are now predicting revenues of €12.1b in 2027. If met, this would reflect an okay 4.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 24% to €3.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €12.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.56 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for KION GROUP

The consensus price target held steady at €49.40, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic KION GROUP analyst has a price target of €62.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €37.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting KION GROUP's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 3.3% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, KION GROUP is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple KION GROUP analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for KION GROUP you should be aware of.

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