CITIC Construction Investment: From “sugar reduction narratives” to “clear supply” functional sugar and sugar substitute opportunities in a single variety

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the opportunities in the functional sugar and sugar substitute industry lie more in the supply pattern and cycle position of a single variety. High sweeteners look at the competitive pattern — acesulfame is controlled by the two leading companies, and sucralose is still at the bottom twice; fillable sweeteners show that production capacity is clear — erythritol production capacity is nearly double. Although alloone sugar has been approved, it “doesn't stand out” due to lack of liquid form; prebiotics and dietary fiber look at the product structure — HMO is growing the fastest, and resistant dextrins are the most profitable.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

I. Industry Framework and A-Share Map

The industry is divided into three major sectors according to sweetness and functional properties: 7 types of high-intensity sweeteners, 9 types of fillers, and 8 types of prebiotics and soluble dietary fiber, and growth is increasing one by one. The domestic regulatory system divides the same type of “sugar” into four regulatory categories: GB2760 food additives, GB14880 nutritional enhancers, new food ingredients, and ordinary food. The four categories determine which scenarios the product can be used in, additional limits, and labeling requirements. The three factors of policy, consumption, and supply are jointly driving the industry to shift from “zero card replacement” to “functional upgrade.” There is a huge difference in the business purity of the seven A-share companies: Bailong Chuangyuan and Sanyuan Biotech accounted for 97.51% and 96.37% of revenue, while Jinhe Industrial's food additives account for only 44.48%. Acefaction Co., Ltd. specializes in preservatives, and strictly speaking, it is not part of the sweetener circuit.

2. High-power sweeteners: synthesis depends on cycle, natural depends on upgrade

Seven varieties are differentiated according to synthesis and nature. On the synthetic side: Sucralose Jinhe's share is about 37%, adding capacity to weaken demand in 2026, and the price bottomed out twice; the combined share of acesulfame and vinegar was about 95%, but the acetic capacity utilization rate was only 57.9%; Aspartame was suppressed by the IARC 2B rating, and cyclamate was affected by the US ban in 1969, and both declined; Neotame is a small variety dominated by Jinhe with demand of only about 3,000 tons. Natural side: Steviol glycosides have a global CAGR of 8-10%. Rhine RM2 has received FDAGRAS and domestic declarations under review; Rohan Gutin has a monopoly of about 60% of the shares, and the raw material barrier is the highest.

3. Filler sweetener: erythritol slowly cleans out, allodonose grows rapidly

The nine varieties are divided into three levels: large sugar alcohols such as sorbitol, maltitol, xylitol, etc., mature, and have no excess profit; the nominal production capacity of erythritol is 30-350,000 tons, corresponding demand is only about 150,000 tons, and the price falls to the 10,000 yuan/ton cost line; US anti-dumping and countervailing investigations (three yuan comprehensive tax rate of 93.58%), and the EU's anti-dumping of about 156.7% is accelerated, but it still takes 2-3 years; D-alloone sugar was approved in July 2025, and the price was 16,000-17,000 yuan/ton compared to erythritol The premium is 60%, but there is a lack of liquid form, unsuitable groups need to be labeled, and fermented products After bitterness, it is difficult to replicate the erythritol market in the short term. On the company side, the gross margin of ternary sugar alcohol rebounded to 19.07%, and Huakang Crystal Sugar Alcohol contributed 84% of gross profit with 47% revenue.

risk analysis

1. The amount of aloxone sugar fell short of expectations. 2. Erythritol came out more slowly than expected. 3. Sucralose prices continue to decline. 4. Trade barriers escalated. 5. Major customer concentration risk. 6. Fluctuations in raw materials and exchange rates. 7. Data Calibration Risk.