China Merchants Securities: AI videos are gradually entering the commercial cashing stage, and it is recommended to focus on leading companies with advantages

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that as the multi-modal generation and camera control capabilities of large domestic models continue to improve, AI video gradually moves from technological changes to the commercial implementation stage. AI short dramas and AI comics take the lead in taking on user needs and creating large-scale revenue. With the further launch and implementation of boutique AI long dramas and AI movie products, AI film and television content is gradually moving into a large screen. It is expected to create a richer commercial monetization model. Subsequent industry competition will gradually shift from production capacity expansion to quality content, distribution efficiency, and commercial transformation efficiency improvements in this process. Focus on leading companies with high-quality IP reserves, content production capabilities, and platform distribution resources.

The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

AI videos moved from “technical experiments” to “commercial realization”, and skits and comics took the lead in commercialization

After many iterations of the video generation architecture, dIT has become the mainstream technology path in the industry, leading the way with domestic multi-modal capabilities: Byte Seedance 2.5 has reached the top of many lists. Mainstream models generally support simultaneous audio and video generation with 1080p resolution and above, and AI video deeply penetrates all aspects of production, such as script segmentation, image generation, and post-production effects. Currently, the two core scenarios that have generated significant revenue contributions in AI video tool applications are AI skits and AI comics: according to DataEye estimates, the overall domestic short drama market size is expected to exceed 121 billion yuan in 2026, of which the AI skit and comic segment is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan, and the overseas short drama market is expected to exceed 6 billion US dollars; AI tools reduce the comprehensive production cost of skits to about 1/10 of traditional live action filming. Some estimates show that the production cost of a single minute comic can be reduced from more than 2,000 yuan to 150-800 yuan, driving supply and demand Simultaneous expansion.

Supply and demand for AI skits are booming, and the monetization system is diverse. The number of AI comic users is growing rapidly, and the leading effect is beginning to show

AI skits have formed multiple monetization structures such as advertising monetization (IAP), user payment unlocking (IAP), platform division, IP derivation, and custom OEM. Among them, IAA is the mainstream domestic model, red fruit skits rely on a free advertising model to quickly launch (MAU is about 360 million in May 2026), and overseas subscription payment platforms such as ReelShort and DramaBox are simultaneously released; the industry has formed three core participants: platform side, producer side, and IP side. AI comics require low camera performance and frame rate, and are naturally compatible with AI generation technology. The number of domestic comic users is expected to exceed 600 million in the first half of 2026 (about 5 times the 120 million in 2025). In 2025, the Douyin platform has 172 core comic makers and a CR3 of 37%. Leading manufacturers such as Mantan take the lead, but the overall competitive landscape has not yet solidified.

AI content is upgraded to medium and long length films, and large screens and theaters open up the monetization ceiling

In terms of boutique development, the first domestic AIGC long drama “Journey to the West” was broadcast on Hunan TV and Mango TV on August 31, 2026. As the first AI drama after the implementation of the new “broadcast while filming, review and broadcast” regulations, it marked the official entry of AI dramas into the big screen scene, and monetization models such as brand advertising sponsorship and membership payments opened up. In terms of cinemas, Bona Pictures “Sanxingdui: Future Past” was screened on October 23, becoming the first AI cinematic feature film to obtain a screening license from the Film Bureau; the online “Soul Ferry: Floating Dream” series recovered costs in the first week of launch, and the cumulative installment of the series exceeded 10 million yuan. iQiyi and Youku have included AI films in the public settlement plan (iQiyi provides an additional 20% subsidy for AIGC content, and an exclusive incentive limit of 1.35 million yuan for Youku), and the AI film distribution path and return limit are gradually becoming clear.

The beneficiary target of the industrial chain is the layout along the three main lines of “IP reserve - AI production - distribution and monetization”

Focus on Mango Supermedia (Mango Lingchuang Platform+ “Journey to the West”), Bona Pictures (AIGMS+ Boca Film Cloud Studio + “Sanxingdui: Future Past”), Reading Wen Group (“Fire Project” +DramaBuddy+ Starting Point Theater), Shanghai Film (classic animation IP operation+AI content co-creation), Huace Film and Television (“Windy” and “National Color” vertical model+ “Financial Management Survey” AI project), Kunlun Wanwei (SkyReels+DramaWave overseas distribution), Jebsen Co., Ltd. (Film and Television Copyright Operation+AI Production Capacity Center+ “Shanhai Jing “Password”), Palm Reading Technology (Baoman Ecological Platform+iDrama Goes Overseas), Ciwen Media (Ciwen TV Platform+ “Mountain and Sea Employment Office” and other IP development), Chinese Online (Internet Article IP+ Happy Model + Overseas FlareFlow Distribution).

Risk warning: The development of AI video generation technology falls short of expectations, uncertainty about commercialization of AI medium- to long-term content, and policy supervision risks.