Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Soft As China Slowdown And RBA Week Loom

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Sunday, 1 Nov 2026

The ASX is set for a softer open, with sentiment pinned to weak Chinese activity data rather than local headlines. Futures are marginally in the red, which points to a cautious start rather than outright panic.

China’s official Manufacturing PMI printed at 49.3 and Non Manufacturing at 49.7 in October, both under the 50 expansion line. Those readings signal softer Chinese demand, which is critical for Australian exports and broader risk appetite.

When China slows, markets usually reassess pricing for everything tied to global trade. Borrowing costs matter less in this story than earnings sensitivity to volumes and commodity prices, especially for businesses that rely on construction, infrastructure and broader industrial spending in China.

The live question now is whether incoming private Chinese PMIs tomorrow confirm this weaker picture or hint at a stabilisation. That data will help investors consider whether today’s caution around Australian cyclicals is a short pause or the beginning of a more defensive stance.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Northern Star Resources (NST)

Former Anglo American chief Mark Cutifani has joined Northern Star Resources as a non executive director, with his comments focusing on how slower innovation across mining can leave producers vulnerable to takeovers. His focus on extracting more from existing deposits and planning around tougher permitting frames the conversation for gold miners that are juggling deeper ore bodies and rising project complexity.

Yancoal Australia (YAL)

Yancoal Australia has renewed key coal sale and purchase agreements with Glencore and Anotero for 2027 to 2029, setting sales caps to Glencore of up to US$750 million in 2027 and US$1.2b a year for Hunter Valley distributions to Anotero. These volumes are tied to index based pricing and reflect expected production, so retail holders can watch how actual contracts track against those ceilings.

Top Movers

• Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) jumped 10.71% after accepting a A$260 million AUSTRAC penalty that had already been provisioned in its accounts.
• Reece (ASX:REH) climbed 8.44% after its AGM and full year update highlighted higher revenue, steady earnings and lower leverage.
• European Lithium (ASX:EUR) advanced 6.85% following court approval and completion of its all scrip acquisition by Critical Metals.

Top Losers

• 4DMedical (ASX:4DX) declined 25.61% after shareholders did not approve an amendment to the company constitution at the AGM.
• IperionX (ASX:IPX) fell 12.24% following investor reaction to its September 2026 quarterly report and recent capital raising activity.
• Coles Group (ASX:COL) dropped 7.67% after a weaker sales update, earnings guidance and price-cutting plans trailed main competitor Woolworths.

On The Radar

Australian markets face a tight cluster of RBA decisions and big bank and blue chip earnings that will set the tone for borrowing costs, the A$ and key local sectors into year end.

• RBA Interest Rate Decision Tue 3 Nov. A move from 4.6% to the 4.85% consensus, or a surprise hold, would directly shape mortgage and business funding costs and could affect rate sensitive banks, property trusts and high debt stocks.
• Australia Building Permits MoM Mon 2 Nov. A shift from the prior 6.1% fall toward the 2.1% consensus gain would indicate whether residential construction is stabilising, which matters for materials suppliers, developers and housing exposed lenders.
• National Australia Bank Thu 5 Nov. Full year 2026 results place the focus on net interest margins and bad debt charges across business and retail lending. This flows directly into how investors assess earnings resilience across the major banks.
• REA Group Thu 5 Nov. Q1 2027 numbers will put listing volumes and advertising revenue under close scrutiny, giving a read on how active the Australian property market is ahead of the wrap up of the spring selling season.
• Macquarie Group Fri 6 Nov. First half 2027 earnings will focus attention on fee income and trading related revenue, which influence how investors assess the broader Australian financial sector’s exposure to deal flow and market volatility.

Sector & Industry Watch

Materials and Metals and Mining: China signals jar weekly rebound

Materials and Metals and Mining have pushed higher over the past week after a weaker month, even as China’s official PMIs dropped below the 50 line that signals contraction. That mix means share prices are reacting to local updates from groups like Coda Minerals and Alara Resources while the macro backdrop from a key buyer of copper and iron ore looks softer.

For holdings tied to this space, the big swing factor now is Monday’s private China manufacturing PMI. A weaker print would keep the spotlight on which miners have strong balance sheets and flexible capex plans if industrial demand stays under pressure.

Real Estate: Rate debate keeps REITs guessy

Real Estate has delivered a solid 7 day gain and a stronger month even though 1 year and year to date performance remain in decline. The recent lift reflects confidence that rent rolls and occupancy are holding, while investors compare A REIT income yields with term deposit rates and the current 4.6% RBA cash rate.

The most important trigger is Tuesday’s RBA decision and statement. Any move away from 4.6%, or tougher language on inflation, would quickly flow through to funding costs for landlords and how secure current distribution levels look.

Financials and Banks: Strong month as deals keep flowing

Financials have been positive over the past month, with Banks also stronger and now modestly ahead year to date. Activity such as BMO buying Euroz Hartleys’ capital markets arm shows continued demand for Australian deal flow and research coverage, especially for Metals and Mining clients.

If you rely on dividends from this sector, the key catalyst this week is the local bank reporting stretch, including National Australia Bank and Macquarie Group. Commentary on arrears, funding spreads and deposit competition will help explain how households and businesses are coping with higher repayments into the next RBA meeting.

Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals & Biotech: Gradual repair helped by offshore demand

Healthcare has edged higher over the past week and month while longer term returns are still softer, and Pharmaceuticals & Biotech show an even stronger recent lift. Updates such as Cyclopharm’s rising US Technegas revenue illustrate how overseas markets can support Australian Healthcare sentiment when local conditions are mixed.

For Healthcare exposure, the single thing to track is upcoming quarterly and half year results. Details on cash usage and international sales momentum often move these stocks far more than broad index moves or interest rate headlines.

Consumer Discretionary: Households feel RBA risk again

Consumer Discretionary has eased over the past week after a stronger month and remains clearly weaker over 1 year and year to date. Higher mortgage costs alongside a 4.3% CPI print mean less spare cash for travel, fashion and entertainment, which keeps pressure on retailers, casino operators and auto related groups.

If you hold this sector, focus on Tuesday’s RBA decision as the main pivot. Any increase in the cash rate would tighten budgets further, so trading updates that mention softer basket sizes, foot traffic or heavier discounting become important clues on where profit margins could come under strain.

Don't Wait For The Winners, Find Them

With the RBA cash rate still at 4.6% and another decision only days away, income focused investors can stress test their holdings against this list of 4 dividend fortresses.

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