PBF Energy Inc. Just Recorded A 13% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think

PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. PBF Energy delivered a significant beat with revenue hitting US$12b and statutory EPS reaching US$12.54, both beating estimates by more than 10%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on PBF Energy after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, PBF Energy's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2027 to be US$38.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 17% to US$18.56 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$37.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.38 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for PBF Energy

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$83.36, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on PBF Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$100.00 and the most bearish at US$55.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PBF Energy shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2027 compared to the historical decline of 1.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 0.7% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately PBF Energy is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around PBF Energy's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that PBF Energy's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PBF Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for PBF Energy going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - PBF Energy has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

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