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Earnings Update: Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
Investors in Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.0% to close at US$78.03 following the release of its quarterly results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$1.51 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$5.4b came in 2.5% ahead of analyst predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Altria Group after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Altria Group's eleven analysts are forecasting 2027 revenues to be US$20.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 21% to US$5.87. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$20.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.85 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Altria Group
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$73.27, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Altria Group at US$85.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$58.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Altria Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2027. Historically, Altria Group's top line has shrunk approximately 0.7% annually over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 3.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Altria Group is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Altria Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Altria Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Altria Group you should know about.
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