Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Cuts Its Dividend, Is 48% Undervalued Enough?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust dividend cut and earnings loss set the tone

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) has moved to preserve capital after a difficult quarter, reporting a GAAP loss and trimming its quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share for the fourth quarter of 2026.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s latest move comes after a tough stretch for holders, with the share price falling 24.5% over the past 90 days and the year-to-date share price return down 43.53%, while the 1-year total shareholder return has declined 33.22%. This signals that recent dividend cuts and credit losses have already shifted how the market prices its risk and income profile.

Stress test your income ideas by comparing Blackstone Mortgage Trust with our curated 5 dividend fortresses, which includes securities that have weathered tougher conditions without the same level of payout pressure.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust now trades at a deep drawdown after fresh credit hits and a reset dividend. Does this lower base finally skew the risk reward toward new buyers, or keep it tilted to caution as valuation comes into focus?

Most Popular Narrative: 48% Undervalued

Blackstone Mortgage Trust closed at $11.00, while the most followed narrative pegs its fair value at $21.00. The valuation gap it highlights rests on whether investors accept a higher earnings power and cleaner balance sheet over time.

The launch of a net lease investment strategy, particularly in defensive business sectors, is expected to provide stable cash flows, enhancing the diversification and resilience of the revenue stream, which could support consistent revenue growth.

Leveraging Blackstone's large-scale global origination footprint to identify attractive investment opportunities is expected to enhance revenue growth by enabling the company to benefit from better risk-adjusted returns across diverse geographic markets.

See why 10 investors see Blackstone Mortgage Trust as 48% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $21.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, almost US$970 million of impaired loans and the risk of slower capital redeployment mean the bullish Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative can be knocked off course.

Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative.

Another View on Blackstone Mortgage Trust valuation

The narrative fair value for Blackstone Mortgage Trust sits at $21.00, yet the current P/S ratio of 12.6x tells a very different story. The fair ratio sits closer to 3.1x, while the Mortgage REITs group and peers cluster around 3.4x and 3.6x. That puts valuation risk front and center for anyone leaning on the underpriced story.

To pressure test that gap using hard numbers rather than headlines, review how this pricing compares in our valuation breakdown, starting with See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

Next Steps

Mixed messages on Blackstone Mortgage Trust so far, right? Move quickly from headline reactions to your own thesis by weighing both sides through 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.

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