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Revenue Beat: Palfinger AG Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 5.2% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
Investors in Palfinger AG (VIE:PAL) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.3% to close at €27.65 following the release of its third-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of €2.69 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of €579m came in 5.2% ahead of analyst predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Palfinger's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2027 to be €2.43b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 15% to €2.47 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €2.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.92 in 2027. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Palfinger
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €41.25 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Palfinger analyst has a price target of €56.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €33.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Palfinger's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 0.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.2% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Palfinger.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €41.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Palfinger analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Palfinger that you need to take into consideration.
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