Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their XTB S.A. (WSE:XTB) Price Target To zł163

XTB S.A. (WSE:XTB) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of zł623m being 10.0% less than what the analysts had been modelling. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the five analysts covering XTB are now predicting revenues of zł3.86b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be zł12.13, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł3.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł10.40 in 2027. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the solid gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for XTB

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 11% to zł163. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values XTB at zł179 per share, while the most bearish prices it at zł155. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that XTB's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that XTB is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards XTB following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple XTB analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for XTB you should be aware of.

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