The number of early voters in the US midterm elections broke a record, and the Democratic Party led 12 percentage points

The Zhitong Finance App learned that more than one-fifth of registered voters in the US have already voted. With four days until election day, the number of early voters in the midterm elections has surpassed 48.5 million, breaking the record set in 2022. The Democratic Party has a 12 percentage point advantage in early voting, which is close to the lead that predicted Biden's victory in 2020.

Higher voter turnout bodes well for the Democratic Party — but given changes in voter behavior and the limitations of available data, its predictive value is uncertain. Moreover, the favorable national picture for the Democratic Party has overshadowed some key senatorial battleground state signals that are exciting for the Republicans.

“We know early voters will be more Democratic. This has been a characteristic of elections for some time,” said Michael McDonald (Michael McDonald), director of the University of Florida Elections Laboratory. “On election day, the voter composition will clearly move in the red direction. Therefore, the Democratic Party must accumulate advantages in early voting in order to withstand what will happen on Election Day.”

Of the 27 early voting states that track voter registration by party registration, 44% of early live and absentee ballots were cast or returned by registered Democrats, and only 32% were cast by registered Republicans — data compiled by McDonald's lab.

The rise in Democratic voter turnout was most notable in states such as Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—these Great Plains states usually elect Republicans, but this year's US Senate election is unexpectedly tight. But in Florida, Michigan, and Texas, there are signs that Republican voters are returning to early voting and absentee voting, which they once avoided in recent years.

Ten years ago, early voting and mail-in voting were bipartisan acceptance. What followed was the 2020 COVID-disrupted election: many Democrats used mail-in voting as a precautionary measure during the pandemic, while many Republicans chose to vote in person on Election Day.

But as pandemic-era habits gradually fade out of memory, more Democrats are returning to vote on Election Day, and more Republicans are voting early — said Tom Bonier (Tom Bonier), senior adviser to Democratic data firm TargetSmart.

Voters from both parties are declining in their chances of voting by mail. McDonald said mail-in ballot applications have declined in many states, in part because a Florida law now requires voters to reapply for mail-in ballots every two years. Those who did apply for mail-in ballots are sent back faster and in larger quantities; others are looking for other ways to vote.

“They are voting in person,” Ohio Democratic Representative Greg Landsman (Greg Landsman) said this week. “It shows some concerns about this election and people want to make sure their votes are counted.”

President Donald Trump blamed mail-in ballots for his 2020 re-election failure and vowed to crack down on the practice. His efforts to get the US Postal Service (USPS) to pre-check the validity of ballots have been blocked by the court, but congressional Democrats are investigating whether USPS is trying to evade these court orders. Postal officials said they are processing election emails as usual, but are encouraging voters to send back their ballots as soon as possible.

Mail-in voting is highest among older voters: in the 14 states for which data is available, 54% of mail-in ballots came from voters aged 65 and over.

Campaign teams prefer early voters because it allows candidates to “save” their support and reduce the risk of losing votes due to bad weather, disasters, or other unforeseen events. Campaign teams can also focus their campaign efforts on ensuring that less likely voters show up on election day.

Early voting numbers have become a favorite source of news for political enthusiasts looking for signals outside of polls and forecasting markets. However, these data may be inconsistent or even conflicting between states, and early voters are often voters with obvious partisan tendencies and whose votes are unlikely to change hands in the first place.

Here are some key highlights from states that have battleground elections for the Senate or House of Representatives:

Georgia: Across the southern hinterland, high voter turnout of black voters has boosted the Democratic Party — an enthusiasm stemming from a backlash against the Republican Party's attempt to redraw former black-majority constituencies (gerrymanders). Non-partisan election data company L2 estimates the Democrats have a 14 percentage point advantage.

Pennsylvania: In a state with multiple contested congressional elections, the Democratic Party accounts for 65% of all early votes cast, and the Republican Party only 25% — this is the country's greatest Democratic advantage. This trend has even extended to western rural counties over the past decade, which have seen a sharp shift to the Republican Party.

Florida: The Republican Party has surpassed the Democratic Party in early voting as the number of registered Republican voters flocking to early voting centers surged this week. But given the Republicans' registration advantage, this lead is still very small. The Republican Party had a 6.4 percentage point advantage in early voting four years ago; now it is 2 percentage points.

Texas: The high-profile Senate election between Democrat James Talarico (James Talarico) and Republican Ken Paxton (Ken Paxton) has attracted more than 6 million early voters, equivalent to 84% of the total votes in the last midterm elections. Although the L2 model shows that Democrats have a 5 percentage point advantage, Republicans outperformed their share of voters.

Michigan: Another relative highlight of the Republican Party comes in the fierce battle between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (Abdul El-Sayed) and Republican Mike Rogers (Mike Rogers) for the state's Senate seat. Although the state has more Democrats than Republicans, the L2 model estimates that 30% of Republican voters voted early, compared to 23% of Democrats.

Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska: In these Great Plains states, which have surprisingly tight Senate seats, Democrats are at a disadvantage in terms of numbers, yet early voter turnout has almost matched or even surpassed that of the Republican Party.