Galaxy Digital Says Brazil Election Upset Does Not Undermine Prediction Market Accuracy

• Galaxy Digital's analysis argues prediction markets remained useful hedging tools despite Brazil's election upset, rather than proving forecasts ineffective.
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the Oct. 25 runoff despite prediction markets assigning him an 11% to 20% probability.
• Brazil's Ibovespa fell 13.9% in the first post-runoff session; the Brazilian real lost more than 8% following the result.
• Lula “Yes” contracts priced near 20 cents paid five times the stake, offering protection against losses in Brazilian stocks.
• Kalshi Research's analysis of more than 2.2 million resolved markets found prices generally reflected outcome probabilities, with accuracy improving near resolution.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Galaxy Digital Inc. published the original content used to generate this news brief on October 30, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.