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    TMC The Metals (TMC) Faces A Valuation Test On NORI Area D Refining Costs

    Simply Wall St·10/30/2026 15:32:15
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    Refining-heavy cost structure moves into focus after NORI Area D study

    TMC the metals (NasdaqGS:TMC) just put hard numbers behind a key question for deep sea mining. Its NORI Area D prefeasibility study shows refining capital costs dwarf offshore system spending.

    For you as an investor, that shifts attention from nodule grades to onshore metallurgy, permitting, and funding, while regulatory uncertainty around exploitation contracts and licenses continues to hang over project timing and potential economics.

    TMC the metals has seen sharp swings, with the share price up 16.87% over the past week after a recent 26.04% decline over 30 days, while year to date the share price return is down 58.11%. The three year total shareholder return remains very large, pointing to fading near term momentum after an earlier surge in expectations.

    Scan beyond TMC the metals and compare this deep sea bet with other resource-focused plays in our curated list of 33 best rare earth metal stocks.

    TMC the metals now trades at US$2.84 after a sharp round trip in sentiment. Given the heavy refining spend and unresolved permits, does that price tilt the risk reward toward buyers or suggest more caution as valuation comes under closer scrutiny next?

    Most Popular Narrative: 72% Undervalued

    On the most followed valuation view, TMC the metals screens as heavily discounted, with a fair value of $10.00 against the last close at $2.84. That gap is built on aggressive long term earnings assumptions and a relatively low discount rate of 8.3% in the model.

    The company is still loss making, reported a net loss of $40.4 million in Q4 2025 and free cash outflow of $43.1 million for 2025. While current liquidity of about $154 million provides a buffer, sustained losses, royalty liabilities of $131 million and potential equity issuance under the shelf or ATM could dilute shareholders and pressure earnings per share.

    See why 9 investors see TMC the metals as 72% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $10.00 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the narrative around TMC the metals hinges on two pressure points: timely permits from NOAA and the ISA, and tight control of offshore and refinery build costs.

    Find out about the key risks to this TMC the metals narrative.

    Next Steps

    Mixed messages in the TMC the metals story so far. Act while sentiment is this split and weigh the 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond TMC the metals?

    If TMC the metals has your attention but you do not want all your capital tied to a single high risk project, broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas surfaced by the Simply Wall Street Screener.