EN
Movida Participações S.A. (BVMF:MOVI3) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year
There's been a major selloff in Movida Participações S.A. (BVMF:MOVI3) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 68% to R$5.87. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at R$3.9b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at R$0.38 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Movida Participações' twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$17.6b in 2027. This would be a solid 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 70% to R$2.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$17.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.18 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Movida Participações
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at R$16.42. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Movida Participações analyst has a price target of R$27.70 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$8.30. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Movida Participações' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Movida Participações' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Movida Participações analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Movida Participações (2 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.