4 million BTC lost $326 billion, and $85,000 became a supply hard cap

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing significant supply resistance near $85,000, the core reason is that a large number of long-term holders are facing unrealized losses. On October 29, the price of BTC hovered around $81,400 due to the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate adjustments. According to Glassnode on-chain data, long-term investors who have held for more than 155 days have accumulated about 4 million BTC in the $85,000 to $118,000 range, and the nominal value of this portion of assets is close to $326 billion.

More importantly, the current market value of more than 50% of these long-term positions is lower than their initial acquisition cost, creating huge potential selling pressure reserves. This supply-level structural obstacle has enabled the $84,000-$85,000 price range to successfully contain Bitcoin's rebound four times this year.

Judging from the microstructure of the market, this price stagnation is no accident. Since January 2026, the BTC/USD exchange rate has surpassed $85,000 in just five trading days and has never remained above that level for three consecutive trading days.

This technical pattern is highly consistent with the cost of holding a US spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US). According to media reports, the average cost of a US spot Bitcoin ETF is around $81,500, while Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst James Seiffert estimates this figure to be around $82,000.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, as of the close of the market on October 26, the total unrealized losses generated by bitcoins held by these ETFs was approximately US$2.63 billion. This state of fluctuation and loss at the institutional level further exacerbates the fragility of prices near key resistance levels, and any upward breakthrough requires digestion of a huge amount of hedging.

Changes in the macro-liquidity environment are also suppressing the performance of risky assets. On October 28, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the target range of 3.75% to 4.00% with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. The opposing Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Federal Reserve Governor Beth Hammark both insisted on raising interest rates by 25 basis points. The futures market has previously set prices that the probability of further monetary policy tightening in December is over 70%. HashKey senior researcher Tam Sun pointed out that US Treasury bond yields continue to run high, curbing investors' interest in risky assets. On Thursday, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 5.00%, down from the 5.37% annual high on October 7, but still at a high level.

Meanwhile, derivatives data shows that BTC perpetual contract financing rates have declined, reducing profit margins for cash holding arbitrage. According to the Galaxy Research (GLXY.US) report, nine banks and hedge funds have cut their spot ETF positions worth 68,000 BTC due to narrowing interest spreads. Despite net inflows from wealth management platforms and sovereign wealth funds, the overall sentiment remains cautious.

The flow of funds and the structure of the order book revealed minor changes in the long and short game of the market. From October 26 to 28, US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated net inflows of $424 million, partially offsetting the $635 million outflow reported on October 22. Tam Sun warned that if the price of BTC climbs to $85,000, investors seeking to exit their positions may exert significant selling pressure.

However, market resilience has increased: daily realized losses were $630 million more than profits at the August low, while realized losses fell to $27 million during the October 24 retracement period. According to Binance order book data, the buying depth in the $78,000-$79,000 range is $42 million, and Glassnode estimates the average cost for recent buyers to be $75,800. Next, the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 15-16, 2026 will be a key variable affecting the direction of financial markets.