Energy earnings week is here: the doubling of profits of refining giant Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US) is just the beginning; political criticism is ready to go

The Zhitong Finance App notes that the week ahead is critical for energy investors. ExxonMobil (XOM.US), Chevron (CVX.US), Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), and ConocoPhillips (COP.US) will release financial reports one after another.

Industry watcher Brian Sullivan said bluntly: These numbers will be astonishing — the magnitude is “Texas level.”

ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips expected data as above. The three companies' earnings per share (EPS) are all expected to more than double last year. Companies that focus on oil refining are a different story.

Marathon Oil's EPS is expected to reach $25.37. Three months ago, the company's EPS reached $17.73, while the market expected “only” $14.27. Here's another comparison: Just a year ago, the Ohio-based company earned just $4.51 per share. The sharp rise in oil prices and a significant widening of the “cracking spread” of more critical refined oil products has led to an estimated increase of 13 billion US dollars in sales within a year.

For the four companies mentioned above, performance guidance may be more important than the financial report itself. These companies' statements on future prospects and capital expenditure are the key, and any adjustments to expenditure plans will receive close attention from investors.

These figures will also be closely watched by the political community. As oil prices rise, politicians are likely to use these huge numbers to attack the entire industry. An industry source revealed that the industry has become “accustomed” to political attacks, but it is hoped that the outside world will pay more attention to the cyclical nature of the industry's ups and downs — profits currently earned by companies will be used to withstand future troughs to cope with the “eventually” drop in oil prices at some point in the future.

No matter what position you take on the oil giants, the week ahead will be spectacular for energy investors in many dimensions — all in full view.

BTIG chart analyst Jonathan Klinsky suggests that investors should be cautious about the energy sector. As far as refiners are concerned, he pointed out that the S&P Refining Index has risen by nearly 160% in 2026, the best performing year in at least 30 years, and far ahead.

Kriens wrote earlier this week: “At least one should expect a consolidation in the sector; the more likely scenario is a significant downward return.”

Klinsky is not optimistic about the technical graphics of Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum. Regarding the latter, he said the stock “hasn't really fallen below the upward trend, but it feels like a break is imminent.”

Next week there will be one of the world's most important energy conferences: the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Show (ADIPEC). The conference brought together heavyweights in the global energy industry. All of this comes at a time when the market is worried that the US may launch a new round of attacks on Iran or its energy infrastructure, and the situation is still tense.

Oil can continue to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz, in part because the US Navy is ensuring the passage of ships. But there are also risks: war in Iran may resume, and the US may launch new attacks on Iranian targets. If that happens, oil prices are likely to jump.