How High Can Amazon’s AI Spending Go? Crypto Prediction Market Is Taking Bets After Andy Jassy’s $220 Billion Warning

As Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) prepares to report third-quarter earnings on Thursday, a prediction market is tracking whether the e-commerce giant’s 2026 capital expenditures will exceed $220 billion, following CEO Andy Jassy’s earlier warning about rising costs and surging demand.

Amazon’s $220 Billion CapEx Forecast

During Amazon’s second-quarter earnings call in July, Jassy said the company expected to spend approximately $220 billion in cash capital expenditures in 2026, up from its previous estimate of $200 billion.

He attributed the increase partly to higher memory costs.

"Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026," Jassy said, adding that the same could be true in 2027.

"The demand we already have for 2028 is striking," he said.

Polymarket Tracks Bets on Amazon’s 2026 AI Spending

On Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket, a 92% probability was shown that Amazon’s 2026 CapEx would exceed $200 billion.

The displayed probability fell to 66% for spending above $210 billion and 51% for exceeding $220 billion.

Under the market’s rules, Amazon’s official fourth-quarter 2026 earnings materials will determine the outcome. Spending must exceed the specified threshold for the contract to resolve "Yes."

Amazon Q3 Earnings: AWS and AI In Focus

Analysts expect Amazon to report third-quarter revenue of $202.28 billion, up from $180.17 billion in the year-ago quarter, according to Benzinga Pro estimates.

The company has exceeded revenue estimates for eight consecutive quarters and in nine of the past 10 quarters.

Analysts project earnings of $1.96 per share, compared with $1.95 a year earlier. Amazon has beaten earnings estimates for two consecutive quarters and in nine of the past 10 quarters.

Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post expects Amazon Web Services (AWS) to drive potential upside in the third quarter.

Investors will also monitor Amazon’s AI and chip businesses after the company said both segments had annualized revenue run rates exceeding $25 billion in the second quarter.

Price Action: Amazon shares closed at $254.60 on Wednesday, up 0.59%. It was down 0.33% to $253.75 in after-hours trading, according to Benzing Pro.

Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings show AMZN has weak short-term price trends but positive medium- and long-term trends, along with a moderate value score.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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