Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are mixed early Thursday as Wall Street navigates a tech-led pullback, critical PCE inflation data, and retreating oil prices amid renewed diplomatic hopes in the Middle East. Thursday follows the Federal Reserve decision to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%-4% on Wednesday.

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are leaning slightly bearish for the Oct. 29 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?” contract currently reflects a 47% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing steep drops in tech futures against a favorable macroeconomic data slate and cooling energy costs:

• Divergent Index Futures: A tech selloff is dragging the broader market lower, while small caps and blue chips advance. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.14%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.32%. Conversely, Russell 2000 futures gained 0.62%, and Dow Jones futures rose 0.44%.

• Geopolitics & Retreating Oil: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled that Tehran is giving diplomacy “a chance to succeed” and remains in contact with intermediaries to review a seven-day plan to de-escalate tensions. Energy markets retreated on the news; Brent crude slipped 1.37% to $110.11 a barrel, while WTI crude dropped 1.50% to $101.24 a barrel.

• Earnings & Eco Data: Thursday’s crucial economic docket features the third-quarter advance GDP, September’s PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET. The corporate calendar is headlined by earnings from Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY), Mastercard Inc. (NYSE:MA), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC), Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MRK), and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT).

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Market analyst Louis Navellier highlighted a surge in consumer optimism, with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumping to 91.7 in October from 84.2 in September. The rebound in consumer confidence offers a potentially encouraging signal heading into the holiday shopping season, although consumers continue to cite elevated costs.

Despite the pre-market weakness in tech futures, Navellier remains highly bullish on AI infrastructure stocks, pointing to massive fundamental earnings beats. GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:GEV) reported a 96% surge in Q3 new orders to $29 billion, while Vertiv Holdings Co. (NYSE:VRT) saw sales jump 60.8% alongside a 91.2% earnings spike.

Navellier argues that fundamentally superior data center stocks will continue to bounce back from any short-term, sentiment-driven pullbacks and resume their upward trajectory.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Oct. 28 Polymarket contract successfully resolved “Up”. The contract recorded $33,567 in total trading volume.

On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. SPY rose 0.34% to $772.31, while QQQ advanced 0.60% to $725.61. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.27% higher at $524.68.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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