Boeing Outlook Impacted By Slower Production Ramp, Higher Capex From BDS Wins

Boeing Co‘s (NYSE:BA) shares remained volatile in early trading on Wednesday, after the company announced its free cash flow guidance.

Here are some key analyst takeaways:

• TD Cowen analyst Gautam Khanna maintained a Buy rating but cut the price target from $240 to $210.
• RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert maintained an Outperform rating and price target of $235.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

TD Cowen: Boeing’s targets were hit by slower production ramps and free cash flow headwinds, Khanna said in a note. The company’s free cash flow outlook of $3 billion for 2027 missed Street expectations of $5.7 billion, with higher capex from additional Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) wins and "a few" billion dollars of advance headwinds, he added.

The biggest free cash flow variable in 2027 is the timing of 777X certification, as guidance assumes 10-15 deliveries, with an estimated $100 million in cash collected per unit at delivery, the analyst said.

Deferred production of the 787/737 should rise through the third quarter of 2027 and then flatten sequentially in the fourth quarter, Khanna said. Management indicated that to reach their target of $10 billion in free cash flows in year 2029, "delivery rates on the 737/787 need to be in the mid-to-high-50s/12 range, respectively, & 777X FCF needs to be positive," he further wrote.

RBC Capital Markets: Boeing’s results were largely in-line with expectations, with free cash flows slightly higher, Herbert said. However, he added that management’s 2026-2029 free cash flow guidance was "well below" investor expectations.

Boeing has "de-risked" its free cash flow outlook, which now reflects "some conservatism," the analyst stated.

He further noted that:

• The company lowered its 2026 MAX delivery target to under 500.
• The 777X remains on track for an entry into service in 2027.
• The outlook assumes 10-15 deliveries of the 777X in 2027.
• Both the 777X and 787 remain on track to stabilize at 10 deliveries per month in 2027.

BA Price Action: Shares of Boeing had declined by 0.63% to $167.12 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

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