Coffee Prices Continue to Fall on Concern About Brazilian Real Weakness

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) is down -8.25 (-2.81%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMF27) is down -3 (-0.09%).

Coffee prices continued to fall today on concerns that Brazilian exporters will increase sales after Monday’s -9% plunge in the Brazilian real on President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s surprise victory in the weekend Brazilian presidential election. The real has since recovered some of its losses but is still down -8% on the week.  A weaker Brazilian real encourages exporters to sell more coffee, as they can get a higher dollar price for their sales.

Coffee is also seeing downside pressure after ICE reported that more than 36,000 bags of Brazilian coffee were awaiting grading at ICE warehouses as of Tuesday, the most in 5 weeks. As coffee passes grading tests, ICE adds it to the certified warehouse inventory figures.  Coffee has been arriving rapidly from Brazil since mid-September, with ICE inventories of Brazilian coffee posting a 9-month high of 80,084 bags last Wednesday and falling just below that level at 79,867 bags on Tuesday.

ICE arabica inventories fell another -788 bags on Tuesday to a 1.5-month low of 224,822 bags, approaching the 27-year low of 217,646 bags posted on September 15.  Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories have risen sharply since early October and posted a 1.25-year high of 6,755 lots on Wednesday.

Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that 29.6 mm of rain, or 82% of the historical average, fell in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region, in the week ended October 25. 

Favorable growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam are bearish for coffee prices.  Above-normal rainfall in Brazil during the now-critical flowering stage may boost next year’s 2026/27 coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  In Vietnam, forecaster Vaisala said recent abundant rains have improved soil moisture levels and should aid cherry development in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-producing region. 

However, coffee prices have underlying support from concerns that the super-El Niño weather pattern could hurt next year’s Brazilian and Vietnamese coffee crops.  Vietnam’s Agriculture Ministry said on October 16 that Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-growing region, could face an El Niño-triggered drought later this year and early 2027.

Larger coffee supplies from Brazil are bearish for prices.  On October 6, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that Brazil’s Sep coffee exports jumped more than +20% y/y to 236,000 MT.  On September 24, Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, raised its 2026 Brazil coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million bags.  Brazil’s 2026 arabica coffee production is expected to rise +34.8% y/y to 48.21 million bags, while robusta production is expected to fall -6.6% y/y to 19.39 million bags. 

News of higher coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, undercut robusta coffee prices.  Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported on October 2 that Vietnam's Sep coffee exports rose +53% y/y to 124,000 MT and 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Sep) rose by +16.2% y/y to 1.45 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to rise +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

On October 9, Colombia’s Coffee Federation reported that 2025/26 Colombia coffee production (Oct-Sep) fell -15% y/y to 12.65 million bags, and Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee exports fell -12% y/y to 11.78 million bags.  Colombia is the world’s second-largest arabica producer. 

Adding to bearish pressure on coffee prices, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on September 10 projected a record global coffee crop and a surplus.  ICO said 2025/26 global coffee production rose +4.4% y/y to a record 183.6 million bags and consumption fell -0.9% y/y to 180.6 million bags, leaving the global coffee market with a 3 million bag surplus, the first surplus in five years.

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.